HTSC's report suggests that, considering the mild consumer sentiment, JD Health (06618.HK) may experience a slower pace of revenue growth than previously expected by the bank, lowering the revenue forecast for 2024/2025/2026 to 57.5 billion, 62.2 billion, and 66.2 billion yuan respectively, down from the previous values of 57.8 billion, 62.6 billion, and 66.7 billion yuan. At the same time, taking into account the environment of interest rate cuts, interest income may be lower than previously expected, adjusting the company's 2024/2025/2026 non-IFRS net profit forecasts to 4.25 billion, 4.8 billion, and 5.22 billion yuan, down from the previous values of 4.43 billion, 5.02 billion, and 5.71 billion yuan.
The bank adjusted its valuation method to relative valuation, giving the company a target non-IFRS PE ratio of 20 times in 2025, at a premium to the average PE ratio of comparable companies at 14 in 2025, mainly considering the company's relatively higher market share in the pharmaceutical market due to its higher operational efficiency. The target price is lowered from 41.3 Hong Kong dollars to 33 Hong Kong dollars. Rated 'buy'.