Guotong Finance App learned that the International Energy Agency predicts in its annual long-term report that we are entering an era of even lower energy prices due to the shift in global energy consumption patterns. The report points out that within this decade, global demand for fossil fuels will cease growing, while the supply of oil and liquefied natural gas will increase. At the same time, electricity consumption, especially led by China, will continue to grow, driving the transformation of the global energy structure. Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, emphasizes that unless significant geopolitical conflicts occur, we will enter a period where energy prices face immense downward pressure.

This prediction marks a turning point, contrasting sharply with the situation post the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 where energy costs soared, triggering inflation. Despite conflicts in the Middle East, crude oil futures prices have dropped by 20% from this year's peak to below $75 per barrel.

The International Energy Agency forecasts that the growth rate of electricity usage has been twice that of total energy demand over the past decade, and with the impetus from China, this growth rate is set to reach six times the total energy demand in the next decade. By 2030, electric cars are expected to account for 50% of global new car sales, far exceeding the current 20%.

Birol points out that we are rapidly entering the era of electricity, a significant shift in energy history. While the demand for oil and gas is set to reach stable levels, the supply is rising with increased oil production from the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana, along with the "wave" of liquefied natural gas projects. By 2030, liquefied natural gas production capacity is expected to significantly increase to around 270 billion cubic meters, and even clean energy technologies like solar photovoltaics may face oversupply.

The report also mentions that crude oil prices may continue to trade between $75 and $80 per barrel, but this would require further production restrictions by OPEC and its allies. Led by Saudi Arabia, OPEC+'s idle production capacity has reached a record of about 6 million barrels per day, expected to reach 8 million barrels per day by 2030.

However, despite the seeming accuracy of the International Energy Agency's predictions, some of its past forecasts have not been accurate, such as expectations for supply shortages a decade ago and predictions of a sharp drop in oil production post the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

By 2030, over half of the global electrical utilities will come from low-emission energy sources, progress is being made in limiting climate change with global carbon dioxide emissions "on the verge of peaking", but the report warns that the world is still not on track to achieve international environmental goals. By the end of this century, temperatures are expected to rise by 2.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, rather than the 1.5 degrees Celsius envisioned by the Paris Agreement.

In addition, this year's temperatures have hit record highs, leading to many extreme weather events, from deadly heatwaves in India to destructive floods in Africa and Europe, and wildfires from Greece to the Amazon rainforest in Brazil. The report warns that as emissions accumulate in the atmosphere, the cost of extreme weather events is increasing, as is the cost of inaction on climate change.