规模效应驱动盈利水平提升，Q3 净利润实现高速增长2024Q1-3 公司预计实现归母净利润3.25-3.39 亿元，同比+20.12%-+25.30%，Q3 实现归母净利润2.20-2.34 亿元，同比+82.21%-+93.80%；中枢值为2.27 亿元，同比+88.01%，环比+183.67%。Incident Overview
Zhengfan Technology released the 2024 three-quarter performance forecast.
The pace of order acceptance accelerated. The Q3 revenue side was better than market expectations 2024Q1-3, the company expected to achieve revenue of 3.38-3.61 billion yuan, +40.20% - +49.74% year over year, with a central value of 3.495 billion yuan, +44.97% year over year, of which Q3 achieved revenue of 1.528-1.758 billion yuan, +43.25% - +64.81%, with a central value of 1.643 billion yuan, +54.03% YoY, +30.00% month-on-month Better than market expectations, mainly due to sufficient on-hand orders and accelerated revenue recognition. Combined with the annual report (GAS BOX revenue in '23 was 0.47 billion yuan, +104% year over year; gas materials achieved 0.42 billion yuan, +73% year over year), we expect gas boxes and gas materials to continue their rapid growth trend. By the end of 24H1, the company had contracts of 8.2 billion yuan, +45.6% year over year, of which the semiconductor industry accounted for 52%. Sufficient orders in hand supported rapid growth in subsequent performance.
The scale effect led to an increase in profit levels. Q3 net profit achieved rapid growth 2024Q1-3, and the company expects to achieve net profit of 0.325-0.339 billion yuan, +20.12% - +25.30% year over year; Q3 will achieve net profit of 0.22-0.234 billion yuan, +82.21% - +93.80% year over year; central value of 0.227 billion yuan, +88.01% year over month.
2024Q1-3 achieved net profit of 0.3-0.32 billion yuan without return to mother, +50.13%-+60.14%; Q3 achieved net profit of 0.186-0.206 billion yuan, +48.39%-+64.35%, and a central value of 0.196 billion yuan, +56.37% YoY, +100.50% month-on-month. The profit side growth rate was better than the revenue side growth rate, and the profit level increased, which was also better than market expectations. Based on the central value, the net interest rate for 2024Q1-3 was 9.50%/8.87%, -1.72pct/+0.85pct, and the net interest rate for 2024Q3 was 13.82%/11.93%, +2.50pct/+0.18pct. The profit level continued to increase year over year: on the one hand, as revenue scale expanded and scale effects became apparent, the expected expense ratio continued to decline; on the other hand, Q2 was suppressed by large fair value changes, and Q3 non-recurring revenue generated positive Contribute.
The new business layout continues to be realized, and the OPEX business, such as parts and materials, began to increase the company's net profit CAGR of 52% in 2016-2023. It is the company with the highest performance in the parts sector. In the medium to long term, the company vigorously develops the OPEX business based on the CAPEX business to support the continuous and rapid development of future performance. ① Components: GASBOX has been supplying large quantities to leading domestic semiconductor equipment companies, with revenue of 0.47 billion yuan in 2023, +104% over the same period last year. New orders are expected to continue to increase in 2024. ② Gas materials: The company is one of the few domestic enterprises that can stably mass-produce electron-grade arsenic and phosphane. The fund-raising project focuses on electronic gases, and focuses on increasing electronic bulk gas to expand product and regional coverage. Achieving 0.42 billion yuan in 2023, +73% over the same period, we expect rapid growth in 24 years; the precursor is the core raw material for semiconductor film deposition. The precursor manufacturing base built by the company at the Tongling electronic materials production base will cover more than 20 kinds of precursor products involving silicon, metal based, high-K and high-K The four Low-K categories are expected to become another important growth point for OPEX business.
Investment advice
We maintained the company's 2024-2026 revenue forecasts of $53.96, 71.46, and 9.043 billion yuan, respectively, and +41%, +32% and +27% year-on-year net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at 5.52, 7.94, and 1,092 million yuan, respectively, +38%, +44 and +37% year-on-year, due to changes in share capital, and slightly lowered the 2024-2026 EPS forecast to 1.92, 2.76 and 3.79 yuan, respectively (the original values were 1.92, 2.76 and 2.76 and 3.80 yuan), and the 2024/10/15 stock price is 32.48 yuan, corresponding PE is 17, 12, and 9 times, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning
Downstream capital expenditure declined, market competition intensified, and new business development fell short of expectations.
