UBS Group released a research report stating that a group of China Mainland banking stocks are expected to gradually release their third-quarter performance for the year in mid-October. It is expected that the rated China Mainland banking stocks will show stable performance in the third quarter with revenue, pre-provision profit (PPOP), and after-tax net profit (NPAT) remaining flat year-on-year, increasing by 0.6% and 3.7% respectively. Regional banks and state-owned banks may exhibit differentiation.

The bank predicts that state-owned banks' third-quarter revenue and PPOP are expected to decline by 1.9% and 1.7% year-on-year, while NPAT is expected to increase by 0.4%, showing improvement from the second quarter's decline of 3%, 4.9%, and increase of 0.1%. On the other hand, the growth rates of regional bank's revenue, PPOP, and NPAT may decrease to 3.1%, 4.1%, and 9.1%, compared to the second quarter's growth rates of 5%, 7.8%, and 13.1%.

Although loan growth is further slowing down, UBS believes that the narrowing of net interest income in China Mainland banks will be reduced due to the stabilization of net interest margins at the industry level. At the same time, trading and investment income are expected to maintain steady growth in the third quarter, with an average annual growth forecasted at 30.4%. They look forward to an improvement in the profit prospects of China Mainland banks in the second half of the year.