值得注意的是，国务院新闻办公室此前在12日举行新闻发布会，其中提出财政部围绕稳增长、扩内需、化风险，将在近期陆续推出一揽子有针对性增量政策举措，其中房地产政策方面，提及“叠加运用地方政府专项债券、专项资金、税收政策等工具，支持推动房地产市场止跌回稳”，以及“将坚持严控增量、优化存量、提高质量，积极研究出台有利于房地产平稳发展的政策措施”，并从三方面明确未来发展方向。①What bullish policies have been announced in the market recently? ②How do institutions evaluate this policy?
Today, most mainland real estate stocks in the Hong Kong stock market are performing well, with sunac and logan group leading the gains. As of the time of writing, $SUNAC (01918.HK)$ rising nearly 17%, $LOGAN GROUP (03380.HK)$ Up nearly 14%,$CHINA VANKE (02202.HK)$rising over 12%, $SHIMAO GROUP (00813.HK)$ In terms of news, the iPhone 16 series is expected to be released in September 2024 and may be officially unveiled on September 10. Soochow Securities' research report also pointed out that with August entering the peak season for iPhone new component stocking, production and delivery are expected to accelerate, and the market is highly concerned about the launch of the iPhone 16 series in September.
On the news front, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 am on October 17th, with Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Ni Hong, as well as officials from the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, People's Bank of China, and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, introducing the relevant information on promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
It is worth noting that the State Council Information Office previously held a press conference on the 12th, proposing a package of targeted incremental policy measures around stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and risk prevention. Regarding real estate policies, it mentioned the use of local government special bonds, special funds, tax policies, and other tools to support the real estate market's stabilization, and stated plans to control increment strictly, optimize stock, improve quality, actively research and introduce policies conducive to the stable development of real estate.
In addition, Tianjin recently issued a notice forwarding the measures of six departments including the Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Committee to further optimize real estate policies and better meet the reasonable housing needs of residents by canceling restrictive housing measures.
Institutions said the expectation of incremental policies will continue.
Tianfeng Securities pointed out that the political bureau meeting stated to "promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate industry", indicating that the turning point in fundamentals may be near, and the expectation of incremental policies will continue. In terms of trading, the market's "bottom consensus" is strengthening, making the logic of "short-term policy game + medium-to-long-term valuation repair" more smooth, and the future elastic space of pro-cyclical real estate stocks is also significant.
Dongguan Securities stated that the recent heavy-weight policies in the real estate industry issued by regulatory authorities are unprecedented in terms of strength, exceeding market expectations and boosting market sentiment. Through real estate and fiscal policies, the central government supports industry development, showing a firm determination to stabilize and recover the real estate market. On the other hand, during the National Day holiday, the volume of property viewings and visits reflecting purchasing intentions has significantly increased; sales volumes in many places have shown varying degrees of growth, restoring market confidence. It is expected that the fundamentals of the real estate industry will gradually stabilize and bottom out, providing some support for the performance of real estate stocks.
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