According to the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily news on October 16th (Reporter: Guo Hui), based on the performance forecasts released so far, the overall performance forecasts for the semiconductor sector in A-shares are positive for the third quarter.

According to statistics from the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, from the beginning of this month to the close of October 15th, a total of 15 semiconductor companies in A-shares have disclosed performance forecasts for the first three quarters of this year. Among them, 11 companies expect improved performance, and 2 have turned losses around.

In terms of the growth rate for the first three quarters, allwinner technology expects a net income growth of 781.09%-858.93%, ranking first among the 15 companies.

Next, Jinghao Integrated's net income growth is estimated at 744.01%-837.79%; Will Semiconductor's net income is expected to increase by more than 5 times; Surtess's net income is expected to turn around and increase by at least 485.41%; Rockchip Electronics' net income is expected to more than triple; companies like Jiangsu Jiejie Microelectronics, Espressif Systems, and Skyworth Yu all expect their net income to double.

The Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily noted that the moderate industrial recovery and the increase in market demand have become the main theme for the expected growth or turnaround of the aforementioned semiconductor companies.

Haiguang Information stated in its announcement that during the reporting period, the company has consistently focused on the general computing market, increased continuous investment in R&D, maintained market-leading product competitiveness, and with the continuous increase in market demand, further boosted rapid growth in its revenue.

Will Semiconductor stated that in the first three quarters of this year, the market demand continued to recover, downstream customer demand increased, and along with the introduction of its products into the high-end smart phone market and the continuous penetration in the auto market for autonomous driving applications, its revenue and gross margin achieved significant growth.

Zhaolian Integrated stated that with the recovery of new energy vehicles and consumer markets, the company's production capacity utilization rate is gradually increasing. In the first three quarters of this year, its new products such as SiC and 12-inch silicon wafers were quickly introduced and mass-produced by top customers, driving rapid growth in operating income together with the second growth curve composed of SiC MOSFET chips and modules production line and the third growth curve focusing on high voltage and high power BCD processes for analog ICs. In the third quarter of this year, its gross margin has already turned positive for the quarter by approximately 6%.

Texas Instruments stated in its performance forecast that the tightening situation in the semiconductor industry supply chain is gradually easing this year, with sufficient capacity in the industry's supply chain. Meanwhile, the company has strengthened supply chain management, optimized costs, and increased gross margin year-on-year, leading to growth in gross profit and substantial increases in both net profit attributable to the parent company and net profit deducting non-recurring gains and losses.

Jiangsu Jiejie Microelectronics stated that during the reporting period, the semiconductor industry saw a moderate recovery. The company focused on the development direction of its main business, market-oriented and innovation-driven, benefiting from factors such as the gradual recovery of downstream market application demand, product structure upgrades, and customer demand growth. In the first three quarters of 2024, its comprehensive production capacity has been slightly improved, maintaining a high level of capacity utilization.

It is worth noting that the demand growth of core product lines and the surge in sales volume of 'star' products have become key driving factors for many semiconductor companies to achieve growth this year.

SITW stated in its performance forecast that in the first three quarters of this year, the new iterative products launched in the field of smart security have superior performance and competitiveness. There has been a significant increase in product sales volume, leading to a significant increase in sales revenue. In the field of smart phones, the shipment volume of high-end 50 million pixel products used in flagship phone main, wide-angle, telephoto, and front cameras has significantly increased. At the same time, the company's comprehensive cooperation with customers and the fulfillment of more application needs have continuously increased its market share, driving significant revenue growth in the smart phone field and successfully opening up a second growth curve.

Crystalv Shuangxin stated that the acceleration of CIS localization in 2024 will closely follow the development trends of the industry both internally and externally, continuously adjusting and optimizing its product structure. Currently, CIS production capacity is at full capacity, and it will focus on expanding CIS production capacity based on customer demand in the future. The company will strengthen cooperation with strategic customers, accelerate the mass production of OLED products, and develop advanced products such as CIS.

Espressif Systems stated that its products have long lifecycle characteristics. In the first three quarters of this year, classic products performed steadily, while new product categories (such as ESP32-S3, C2, and C3) are in a rapid growth phase, driving revenue growth. With the continuous enrichment of product lines, new product series with differentiated characteristics will further expand into new markets.

Expectations from semiconductor industry insiders suggest that growth rates may slow down in the second half of the year.

Although up to now, the overall performance of A-share semiconductor companies in the first three quarters of the year is optimistic, multiple interviewed semiconductor professionals also expect that the performance growth rate of chip companies in the second half of the year may slow down compared to the first half (especially the second quarter of this year).

The person in charge of a consumer semiconductor enterprise in the science and technology innovation board in East China, interviewed by the 'Star Market Daily', stated that the overall inventory digestion of the industry in the previous cycle lasted until around September of last year, after which the industry started a new round of stocking from the end of last year to this year. Especially in April and May of this year, when the industry upstream wafer foundries and packaging and testing factories reported capacity constraints, many chip companies and terminal manufacturers initiated stocking due to a sense of urgency. "However, it is expected that there will not be an accumulation and rush in the industry like the previous cycle."

The above-mentioned chip enterprise executive stated that the overall industry demand began to stabilize and rise from last year, but this year, using the example of mobile phone manufacturers, it can be seen that the demand for advance stocking started to decline in May and June this year.

Another person from a consumer semiconductor company told the 'Star Market Daily' reporter that based on the current market demand recovery situation, it may not be possible to support most chip companies to achieve similar performance growth rates as in the first half of the year in the third quarter of this year. (Note: The aforementioned 15 semiconductor companies issued performance forecasts for the overall performance in the first three quarters, and many of them are leaders in their respective fields.)

"The reason why the performance of most chip companies was good in the first half of this year, in addition to a wave of downstream customers increasing stocking levels, is also related to enterprises expanding against the market cycle last year. By binding partnerships with wafer foundries and testing factories, the supply chain costs at the bottom of the cycle will receive more support." The above-mentioned consumer semiconductor company executive said, however, this year there is a tight capacity situation in wafer foundries with general price increases, and in the second half of the year, only the market for mid- to high-end chips may be favorable.

An industry insider from a chip company in Beijing also told the 'Star Market Daily' reporter that in the first half of the year, chip manufacturers generally carried out relatively aggressive stocking due to the depletion of raw material inventories and the influence of international shipping. "In reality, looking at market demand, there is a slight warming, but no substantial increase, and there is a trend of consumption downgrade. The growth rate of domestic chip companies in the third quarter may slow down, and the performance in the fourth quarter still needs to be observed to see if it will further decline."

"The industry as a whole has entered the bottom of the price reduction; currently, from the perspective of the upstream supply chain, due to cost increases since the second quarter, and a trend of further increases, while prices on the downstream client side have dropped to historical lows, both sides are squeezing each other, so it is expected that price reductions will not be the main theme next year, of course, there could still be some companies strategically competing on pricing." So said the aforementioned industry insider in the chip sector.

In the latest research report released by Bocom International today (October 16th), the view indicates that downstream hardware applications and semiconductor demand are recovering steadily, but the recovery in different sectors shows differentiation: inventory of smart phones continues to decrease, with supply and demand becoming increasingly balanced, and the market share of mainland enterprises has increased in the first half of this year; servers and personal computers benefit from the impact of online demand for artificial intelligence, and the prosperity further improved in the first half of this year; while the inventory levels of communication equipment, autos, and industrial sectors remain high for the past four years, the industry may still be at the bottom of the cycle.