美股周二收跌，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数以1%的跌幅领跌，受累于芯片股因需求担忧走低，而能源板块因油价下跌重挫3%。截至收盘，标普500指数下跌44.59点或0.76%，报5815.26点。UBS Global Research raised its year-end target price for the S&P 500 index from the previous estimate of 5600 points to 5850 points on Tuesday, citing corporate profit growth, favorable macroeconomic backdrop, and the Fed rate cut. UBS also raised the target price for the S&P 500 index at the end of 2025 from the previous estimate of 6000 points to 6400 points.
Financial Associated Press on October 16th (Editor: Bian Chun) UBS Global Research raised its year-end target price for the S&P 500 index from the previous estimate of 5600 points to 5850 points on Tuesday, citing corporate profit growth, favorable macroeconomic backdrop, and the Fed rate cut.
UBS also raised the target price for the S&P 500 index at the end of 2025 from the previous estimate of 6000 points to 6400 points. This means that in the next 15 months, the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by another 10%.
US stocks fell on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq index, dominated by technology stocks, leading the decline with a 1% drop, affected by chip stocks falling due to demand concerns, while the energy sector plummeted 3% due to falling oil prices. At the close, the S&P 500 index fell 44.59 points or 0.76% to 5815.26 points.
On Monday of this week, the S&P 500 index closed at a historical high of 5859.85 points, with the index having risen nearly 23% year-to-date.
Multiple 'tailwinds'
In terms of US economic growth, UBS economists expect nominal GDP to grow by 3.7% in 2025, with real GDP growth of 1.6%, both in line with long-term average levels.
In addition, UBS believes that a loose monetary policy outlook will be bullish for US companies.
"Rate cuts should be able to reduce interest expenses and default risks for enterprises, thus boosting EPS and valuations," said Jonathan Golub, a UBS Group analyst. "Financial conditions showing reduced pressure/increased liquidity are favorable for (enterprise) valuations."
The Federal Reserve announced a significant 50 basis point rate cut in September, kicking off the expected series of cuts. Fed Chairman Powell said that the central bank's decision to cut rates by 50 basis points, instead of the usual 25, is aimed at demonstrating determination to maintain low unemployment rates in the face of slowing inflation.
UBS Group forecasts that by 2026, the Federal Reserve will cumulatively cut rates by 250 basis points, and states that a significant drop in interest rates may increase corporate profit margins by 20 basis points.
UBS Group also stated that the strong performance of technology stocks may further boost the S&P 500 index.
However, UBS Group also pointed out that its outlook on the future of US stocks faces downside risks. The institution emphasized that if US inflation accelerates again, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to reconsider rate cuts.
