公司增量项目有序推进：公司上半年完成对铁拓的全资收购，扩大在海外市场的布局，并于6 月起并表贡献利润。铁拓的资源金储量达40 多吨，年产量有望达到约5 吨水平。此外，公司先前成功收购海域金矿，根据JORC 标准，海域金矿拥有探明+控制+推断黄金资源量总计562.37 吨，拥有可采黄金储量212.21 吨，金矿平均品位为4.42 克/吨，属于资源禀赋极其优秀的黄金资源。目前该项目稳步推进，预计2025 年投产，并在2027 年达产至至少15 吨/年的水平。公司海域金矿得到了紫金矿业的相关支持，为项目的工程推进以及超深井开采提供了有力保障。公司海外项目有序推进且增量空间巨大，有望带动公司未来业绩持续高速增长。Profit levels continued to rise in the third quarter, and incremental projects progressed in an orderly manner
The profit level continued to rise in the third quarter: in the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 8.086 billion yuan, an increase of 26.64%; net profit to mother was 0.881 billion yuan, an increase of 141.07% year on year; and basic earnings per share were 0.26 yuan. In a single quarter of the third quarter, the company's revenue was 3.458 billion yuan, up 17.7% year on year; net profit to mother was 0.328 billion yuan, up 192.86% year on year.
Continued rise in gold prices led to the company's performance growth: According to the company's 2024 semi-annual report, the company's gold accounts for 89% of revenue and 99% of gross profit, contributing to almost all of the company's profits. As of October 11, the closing price of London spot gold reached $2648.8 per ounce, up 13.64% from the end of June. The continued rise in gold prices contributed to the company's performance growth in the third quarter. As global geopolitical risks escalate and risk aversion sentiment increases, as well as safe-haven demand brought about by the Federal Reserve's determination of the direction of interest rate cuts, weakening dollar credit, and political and economic uncertainty, the future price center of gold prices will continue to rise.
The company's incremental projects progressed in an orderly manner: the company completed the wholly-owned acquisition of Tietuo in the first half of the year, expanded its layout in overseas markets, and contributed to profits in June. Tietuo's resource reserves reach more than 40 tons, and the annual output is expected to reach the level of about 5 tons. In addition, the company previously successfully acquired offshore gold mines. According to JORC standards, offshore gold mines have a total of 562.37 tons of proven, control+ inferred gold resources, 212.21 tons of recoverable gold reserves, and an average grade of 4.42 g/ton of gold, which is a gold resource with excellent resource endowments. Currently, the project is progressing steadily. It is expected to be put into operation in 2025, and production will reach a level of at least 15 tons/year by 2027. The company's offshore gold mine received relevant support from Zijin Mining, which provided a strong guarantee for the project's engineering progress and ultra-deep well mining. The company's overseas projects are progressing in an orderly manner and there is huge room for growth, which is expected to drive the company's future performance to continue to grow rapidly.
The target price is HK$17.39, maintaining the purchase rating: The company has excellent endowments in gold resources, steady production in existing mines, mergers and acquisitions of Tietuo, and the commissioning of overseas projects to provide continuous impetus for the company's future performance growth. Currently, the escalation of geopolitical risks has increased the need for safe haven capital, factors such as the determination of the direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and the weakening credit of the US dollar. Gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium to long term, enhancing the company's overall profitability. We forecast that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024-2026 will be 1.25/1.98/2.7 billion yuan respectively, giving the company a target price of HK$17.39, corresponding to 30 times PE in 2025. There is room for an increase of 32.7% compared to the current price, and a purchase rating.
