投资建议：公司作为国内极为稀缺的X86 和GPGPU 技术架构领航员，正持续保持极高强度的研发力度加速技术迭代。我们预计公司2024-2026 年收入为90.85 亿元、135.36 亿元和200.10 亿元，归母净利润为20.28 亿元、30.63 亿元和45.91 亿元，PE 为134 倍、89 倍、59 倍。维持“增持”评级。Incident: The company released its financial report for the third quarter of 2024. In 2024, Q1-3 achieved operating income of 6.136 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.64%, achieved net profit to mother of 1.526 billion yuan, an increase of 69.22% over the previous year, and realized the deduction of non-net profit of 1.475 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.87%, and rapid growth in performance.
Inventory reached a new high, and supply was king under strong demand: in the 2024 Q3 quarter, the company's revenue was 2.374 billion yuan, up 78.33% year on year, and net profit to mother was 0.672 billion yuan, up 199.90% year on year, after deducting non-net profit of 0.657 billion yuan, up 205.85% year on year. As of Q3 2024, the company's inventory was 3.896 billion yuan, an increase of 1.441 billion yuan over Q2, an increase of 3.21 billion yuan over the same period last year, and an advance payment of 2.213 billion yuan,... an increase of 0.362 billion yuan over the same period last year. We believe that the company's new CPU and DCU products have received recognition and orders in the commercial market, and the company's supply-side indicators continue to grow against the backdrop of strong demand. We once again reaffirm, “A sharp increase in inventory may be a sign of rapid future revenue growth. High growth in Q3 2024 in a single quarter or only the beginning of the company's high growth channel.”
The product has long gone from being usable to being easy to use. The gross margin for the single quarter increased by nearly 13 pcts: in the first three quarters of 2024, the company's gross margin was 65.63%, up 5 pcts year over year. The company's gross margin in the Q3 quarter of 2024 reached 69.13%, up 5.3 pcts month-on-month and 12.9 pcts year-on-year. We believe that the company's gross margin has increased dramatically or mainly benefited from large-scale mass production of new products such as DCU. To a certain extent, the high gross margin represents that the company's products are not only “usable” choices in the context of localization, but also “easy to use” products with both autonomy and high performance. The company's CPU and DCU products are expected to continue to expand into the commercial market, opening up a wider space for growth.
Investment advice: As a pioneer of X86 and GPGPU technology architectures, which are extremely scarce in China, the company continues to maintain extremely intense R&D efforts to accelerate technology iteration. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 9.085 billion yuan, 13.536 billion yuan, and 20.10 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 2.028 billion yuan, 3.063 billion yuan, and 4.591 billion yuan, and PE 134 times, 89 times, and 59 times. Maintain an “Overweight” rating.
Risk warning: Technology research and development falls short of expectations, Xinchuang's progress falls short of expectations, Internet market expansion falls short of expectations, and the supply chain is adversely affected.
