The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. On the other hand, if you find a high quality business to buy (at the right price) you can more than double your money! For example, the Burlington Stores, Inc. (NYSE:BURL) share price has soared 104% in the last 1 year. Most would be very happy with that, especially in just one year! In contrast, the stock has fallen 9.5% in the last 30 days. In contrast, the longer term returns are negative, since the share price is 8.8% lower than it was three years ago.
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 1 year and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Burlington Stores was able to grow EPS by 63% in the last twelve months. The share price gain of 104% certainly outpaced the EPS growth. This indicates that the market is now more optimistic about the stock.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We know that Burlington Stores has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Burlington Stores shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 104% over the last year. That's better than the annualised return of 5% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Burlington Stores has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
