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阿斯麦业绩暴雷,订单仅市场预期的一半,下调明年销售目标,股价一度暴跌超17%

asml holding performance exploded, orders only half of market expectations, lowered next year's sales target, stock price plunged more than 17% at one point.

wallstreetcn ·  Oct 15, 2024 15:18

Source: Wall Street View, author: Zhao Yuhe.

According to the financial report, ASML's third-quarter order volume was only 2.63 billion euros, a decrease of 53% from the previous period. Due to the slowdown in AI demand, ASML has lowered its performance guidance for 2025. Analysts believe that this disastrous financial report dealt a heavy blow to NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun's previous statement of 'crazy demand for AI chips,' indicating that the AI bubble is subsiding. Poor performance caused ASML's US ADR stocks to plummet more than 17%, marking the largest intraday decline since 2008, while also dragging down the PHLX Semiconductor Index and NVIDIA, among other AI concept stocks.

Dutch lithography giant $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ Originally scheduled to release its third-quarter financial report on Wednesday, the report was leaked early during Tuesday's pre-market trading due to technical issues. As a result, the poor performance shook the market.

ASML's third-quarter financial report shows that although revenue exceeded expectations, orders were only half of the market's expectations. Due to weakened AI demand, next year's sales target has been revised down, leading to a steep drop of over 17% in ASML's US ADR stocks, and dragging down the PHLX Semiconductor Index and NVIDIA, among other AI concept stocks. The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell by nearly 5%, marking the largest decline in over a month.

Key financial data:

Net sales: Third-quarter net sales were 7.47 billion euros, a 20% increase from the previous period, exceeding analysts' expectations of 7.17 billion euros.

Order volume: The third-quarter orders were 2.63 billion euros, a 53% decrease from the previous quarter, with analysts expecting 5.39 billion euros.

Gross margin: The gross margin in the third quarter was 50.8%, with analysts expecting 50.7%.

Net income: 2.08 billion euros, a 32% increase from the previous quarter, with an expected 1.91 billion euros.

Cash / money market and other: 4.99 billion euros, down 0.7% month-on-month, expected 4.86 billion euros.

Performance guidance:

Net sales for the full year: Expected net sales for the full year of 28 billion euros, with analysts expecting 27.71 billion euros.

Q4 net sales: Expected net sales for the fourth quarter is 8.8 billion-9.2 billion euros, with analysts expecting 8.95 billion euros.

Q4 gross margin: Expected gross margin for the fourth quarter to be 49%-50%, with analysts expecting 50.5%.

Next year's net sales: Expected net sales for 2025 to be between 30 billion and 35 billion euros, at the lower end of the analyst's estimated range, with analysts expecting 35.94 billion euros.

Next year's gross margin: Expected gross margin for 2025 to be between 51%-53%, the company originally expected around 54%-56%.

asml holding's system sales in the Chinese market accounted for 47% in the third quarter, compared to 49% in the previous quarter. It is expected that the Chinese market will contribute approximately 20% to the company's total revenue in 2025.

ASML President and CEO Christophe Fouquet stated in a declaration:

"While the AI sector continues to show strong growth and potential, the recovery time for other market sectors is longer. The recovery appears to be more gradual than previously expected. This situation is expected to continue into 2025, leading to customers being more cautious. In terms of logic chips, the dynamics of competitive wafer manufacturing have led to slower expansion rates for certain customers' new nodes, resulting in multiple wafer fabs delaying and causing changes in lithography demand timing, especially in terms of EUV. In the memory sector, we see limited new capacity additions, with the focus remaining on technology transitions to support the demand for HBM and DDR5 related to AI."

After the financial report was released, ASML's American Depositary Receipt (ADR) plummeted more than 17% at one point, marking the largest intraday drop since 2008. The company's stock price in the Amsterdam stock market also plunged by 15%, causing a trading halt. Since hitting a historical high in July, the stock price has dropped by 30%.

The Nasdaq Composite Index also dropped significantly, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index falling by nearly 5%, marking the largest decline in over a month. Intel, Taiwan Semiconductor ADR, Semiconductor ETF, Super Micro Computer dropped by up to about 1.3%, Micron Technology dropped by around 3%, Nvidia, AMD fell by over 4%, while Arm Holdings dropped by 6%.

Just over a month ago, Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun stated at the Goldman Sachs Technology Conference in San Francisco, "The demand for AI chips is very high, everyone wants to be the first, everyone wants to take the leading position." He added, "Today we may have more emotional customers, which is natural. It's intense, and we're doing our best."

However, analysts believe that ASML Holding's bleak financial report and downward outlook revision may indicate that the AI bubble is deflating.

Editor/Lambor

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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