Is the sudden weakening of manufacturing activity a sign that the strong performance of the usa economy is just a flash in the pan?
USA manufacturing activity weakened suddenly, with the October New York Fed Manufacturing Index plunging significantly. Is the strong economy just a flash in the pan?
On Tuesday, October 15, data released by the New York Fed showed that the October New York Fed Manufacturing Index plummeted from 11.5 in September to -11.9, below the expected value of 3.6. This drop of over 20 points compared to the previous value marks the largest monthly decline since January.
In contrast, the situation in September was completely different, with the New York Fed Manufacturing Index soaring to a 30-month high after nine consecutive months of contraction.
Specifically, the various sub-indices are mixed.
The current new orders index, after climbing to its highest level since April 2023 a month ago, dropped sharply by nearly 20 points to -10.2.
The shipments index decreased by nearly 21 points to -2.7.
However, the employment index rebounded to 4.1, marking the first expansion in a year, while the workweek indicator also increased.
At the same time, the material price payment index of the New York Fed rose to a six-month high of 29, while the price index received by state manufacturers also accelerated.
In addition, the overall activity's six-month forward-looking index rose to its highest level in three years at 38.7, indicating that manufacturers in the state are more optimistic about the economic outlook.
Editor/Lambor