According to the Finance and Economics APP, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated on Tuesday that on a global scale, the oil market will face a considerable "oversupply" situation in the new year, namely in 2025, and assured that the institution is prepared to take action at any time to address a potential interruption in Iranian oil supply. This latest report from IEA publicly responds to the "oversupply" view of oil presented by major Wall Street institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley - namely, the expectation that from 2025 onwards, the oil market will experience a situation where supply consistently exceeds demand. Following the release of the latest IEA report, the Brent crude oil futures prices, which have been weak recently, plunged nearly 5% upon hearing the news.

Prior to Monday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next year for three consecutive months, surprising crude oil market analysts. With OPEC lowering the overall oil demand expectations for both crude oil and various oil products produced through processing three times in a row, OPEC seems inclined to abandon its long-standing extremely optimistic forecasts for oil demand.

In its latest monthly report, OPEC stated that global oil consumption in 2024 will increase by 1.9 million barrels per day, representing an increase of only about 2%, which is 0.106 million barrels per day less than the organization's previous forecast, with consumption expected to increase by only 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025. IEA's forecast is more pessimistic, predicting a 0.86 million barrels per day increase in global oil demand this year, down 0.04 million barrels per day from its previous forecast.

The OPEC report also indicates that major production cuts by OPEC+ supporting oil prices have been disrupted by countries that failed to reduce production, such as Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia, bringing supply-demand disruptions, particularly from Russia constantly injecting cheap Russian oil into the market due to the urgent need for a large income to invest in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Also recently, the two largest commodity trading giants in the world, Trafigura Group and Gunvor Group, painted a bleak picture of the outlook for the crude oil trading market, reflecting serious concerns among commodity trading giants about the future oversupply trend under the backdrop of sluggish Asian crude oil demand and continuous supply growth. Trafigura Group, a major commodity giant that has long been bullish on crude oil, rarely agrees with the "oversupply" view and expects Brent crude oil prices to quickly enter the pessimistic range of $60.

These large institutions representing the most authoritative views of the oil market have finally abandoned their strong bullish forecasts for oil demand that they have firmly held since the beginning of this year, realizing that global fuel consumption is dramatically slowing down and are starting to acknowledge the recent dominant Wall Street's pessimistic expectation of "oversupply" in the oil market.

Recently, Brent crude oil prices have slightly risen in the past few weeks, mainly due to investors' concerns that Israel may retaliate against Iran's missile attacks by targeting its oil facilities, with Iran being a major oil exporting country and OPEC member. However, following the continuous escalation of negative concerns about 'oversupply', the latest report released by OPEC on Monday further reinforced traders' expectations of an imminent oversupply in the oil market, causing Brent crude oil prices to continue their recent weak trend.

On Tuesday, the IEA's latest report further struck a blow to Brent crude oil futures prices, plummeting nearly 5% directly after the IEA report was released, following a sharp 2% drop on Monday. Currently, the Brent oil price has fallen back to around $73 per barrel.

Prior to OPEC's latest monthly report, the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed an unexpected increase of 5.8 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending October 4th, surpassing the expected 2 million barrels, implying ample supply and no significant increase in market demand, fueling the extremely negative expectation of 'oversupply'.

The latest report from the IEA also dispelled market expectations of a reduction in Iranian oil supply stimulating an increase in oil prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA), which manages emergency oil stocks for industrialized countries, stated in its latest report that global public oil stocks have exceeded 1.2 billion barrels, with the remaining production capacity of the 'OPEC+' group, which includes OPEC and allies like Russia, continuing to be at historically high levels.

The International Energy Agency stated in its monthly report released on Tuesday: "As the supply situation develops, the International Energy Agency is prepared to take action at the necessary time."

"Currently, international oil supplies continue to flow, and the market is expected to face a significant oversupply on the supply side in the new year without any major supply disruptions." Additionally, in its latest report, the International Energy Agency further lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth this year, citing the possibility of weak demand from major oil-consuming countries like China, Japan, and South Korea.

The International Energy Agency, headquartered in Paris, expects that by 2024, China's demand may increase by only 0.15 million barrels per day. Statistical data from the International Energy Agency shows that China's oil consumption dropped significantly by 0.5 million barrels per day in August compared to the same period last year, marking a continuous downward trend for four consecutive months.

The International Energy Agency stated in the report: "The demand for oil-consuming powers like China continues to be lower than expected, which is the main drag on overall demand growth expectations."

While demand is slowing down, non-OPEC countries are significantly increasing oil supply. The IEA predicts that this year and next year, non-OPEC countries' oil production will increase by 1.5 million barrels per day, with the production of the USA, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil surpassing the corresponding demand growth rates.

The oil market has completely shifted to the expectation of "oversupply", which is the core logic for many investment institutions to bearish on the remaining time of this year and the trend of Brent crude oil prices in 2025. Ben LeCock, the oil trading manager from Tock Group, recently stated that Brent crude oil prices may soon enter a pessimistic range of $60.

Recent research reports from Wall Street giants Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs both indicate that as early as the end of 2024 or early 2025, the entire oil market may shift from a slightly tense supply-demand balance to a potential surplus. Goldman Sachs even predicts that the Brent crude trading price may fall to a temporary low of $61 per barrel.

Exane BNP Paribas, the securities department of French bank BNP Paribas, has downgraded Exxon Mobil's stock rating from "neutral" to "sell" and set a target price of $105 (compared to the company's stock closing at $124.08 on Monday in the US stock market). This long-time leader in the US oil and gas industry has rarely received a "sell" or "sell" rating, making it the first time in over a year that an institution has given a "sell" rating. The core logic of Exane BNP Paribas's bearish view on Exxon Mobil's stock price is that the production capacity of "OPEC+" is about to face severe oversupply, indicating this negative outlook is "like a sword of Damocles hanging over the entire oil industry", and that this traditional energy company faces extremely weak refinery profit prospects.