A top economist and risk expert stated that the USA is currently in one of the most unstable investment environments in decades. While some investors are delighted by the stock market rebound, he is focusing on the potential market crash.

Author of 'The Black Swan', Nassim Taleb, recently expressed concerns about the market situation in an interview. He mentioned that the current environment seems similar to past crashes, and added that he is concentrating on preparing for such events.

"We have accumulated a significant amount of risk," said the Universa Investments advisor last Friday. "I would say...my focus is more on hedging against the ultimate market crash because we are more vulnerable than at any time in the past 20 years, or even 30 years," he later added.

Taleb pointed out that despite the stock market's rise over the past year, there are still some risks in the market.

He mentioned that stock prices seem 'crazy,' noting that a majority of the gains in the s&p 500 index are concentrated in a few companies related to artificial intelligence.

However, he stated that it is unclear if these companies have the greatest growth potential, pointing out the rotation of companies that performed best during the internet bubble period. 'Ai will be the best investment. But perhaps not these companies,' he said.

Meanwhile, Taleb expressed that the USA economy has been 'confusing,' and it is uncertain if some industries are overheating.

Due to the increased level of globalization since the epidemic, the degree of mutual dependence in the world economy is also higher. He pointed out that this means external shocks are more likely to spread, which is also a factor that makes the investment environment more complex.

Taleb stated that the debt held by Western countries 'exceeds our ability to bear', with the debt-to-GDP ratio in the USA reaching 124% by the end of September. He previously predicted that a combination of high debt levels and external shocks could lead to a 'death spiral'.

At the same time, investors are moving away from a period dominated by low interest rates. He pointed out that many market participants are accustomed to avoiding more 'conservative' assets, and this risky attitude may leave traders in a vulnerable position.

"These crises occur when you least expect them," Taleb said. 'I think we are in an environment very similar to past collapses, the market becomes complacent. People have gotten used to it. They may have taken some precautions at first, but then they throw precautions out the window... At that point, vulnerability reaches its peak.'

However, Taleb and other forecasters at Universa Investments have repeatedly made pessimistic predictions about the short-term stock market and economy. Universa founder Mark Spitznagel earlier this year stated that he expects the S&P 500 index to experience 'brutal rise' followed by the most severe crash since 1929, partly due to the dangerous situation brewing in the credit market.

In contrast to this pessimistic forecast, Piper Sandler stated in a report on Monday that investors concerned about the high valuation of the stock market should not sell stocks.

The investment portfolio strategy team at this Wall Street firm, led by their Chief Investment Strategist Michael Kantrowitz, estimated that the S&P 500 index is overvalued by about 8%. 'An 8% overvaluation is not a reason to put.' As long as common factors such as interest rates, employment, or inflation do not trigger a 'fear' catalyst, stocks can maintain a higher valuation.'

Kantrowitz stated that even if the stock market is overvalued and with no imminent tightening of credit spreads, a robust labor market, and continued GDP growth are all signals that investors should remain bullish, even if stock market valuations are slightly high.