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决策分析:以色列消息给油价致命一击,美元涨势正当时

Decision Analysis: The Israeli news dealt a fatal blow to oil prices, and the rise of the US dollar is timely.

FX168 ·  Oct 15 16:56

FX168 Financial News Agency (Asia Pacific) reported that Asian stock markets fell slightly on Tuesday (October 15), in contrast to Wall Street's strong close and investors' optimistic outlook on corporate profits, while the US dollar approached a two-month high due to market expectations of a smaller rate hike in the US next month.

The Nikkei Index rose by over 1%, reaching a three-month high. Prior to that, the Japanese market was closed on Monday due to a holiday. Morgan Stanley Capital International's stock index for the Asia-Pacific region excluding Japan fell by 0.26%. #DecisionAnalysis#

"Considering the current undervaluation," analysts from BlackRock Investment Research Institute stated, "however, the details are limited. If future announcements are disappointing, we may change our views."

"We are still bullish on US stocks and the broad theme of artificial intelligence, as corporate profit growth has surpassed the tech sector. However, concerns about overvaluation may lead to short-term selling. This requires us to consider undervalued global market exposure and potential catalysts," the analysts added.

Overnight, the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit historic highs, benefiting from the rise in chip stocks, with AI giant Nvidia up by 2.4%, along with strong third-quarter earnings performances from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo & Co.

Other major banks, including Citigroup, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs, will report quarterly performance on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, US stock futures inched up, with S&P 500 futures rising by 0.06% and Nasdaq futures rising by 0.02%. Most European stock indices opened higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 Index up by 0.12%, Germany's DAX Index up by 0.45%, UK's FTSE 100 Index up by 0.07%, and France's CAC 40 Index down by 0.09%.

In the forex market, the US dollar fell by 0.12% against the Japanese yen to 149.60, retreating from the overnight two-month high near 149.98 yen. The euro dropped by 0.17% to 1.0890 US dollars, close to the overnight ten-week low, as the market awaits the European Central Bank's interest rate decision on Thursday.

The US dollar is supported as the market believes the Federal Reserve may choose a small 25 basis point rate hike next month instead of 50 basis points, because the US economy continues to grow without overheating.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller called for a 'more cautious' approach to future rate cuts on Monday, while Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expects more moderate rate cuts in the future.

According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders expect an 88% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, with a 12% probability of no rate change.

The two-year US Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to 3.9665%, while the 10-year yield remained steady at 4.0944%. The US bond market was closed on Monday due to the holiday.

In terms of commodities, oil prices experienced drastic fluctuations today. Reports stated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed the US that Israel is willing to target Iran's military objectives rather than nuclear facilities or oil targets. As a result, oil prices plummeted by about 3%, easing immediate concerns about supply disruptions.

Due to concerns about demand and a easing of tension between Israel and Iran, oil prices fell for the third consecutive trading day. Brent crude oil futures dropped by 3.7% to $74.58 per barrel, and fell 2% overnight.

Meanwhile, gold fell by 0.41% to around $2640, as the stronger US dollar suppressed the rise in gold prices.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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