Yesterday, U.S. presidential candidate and current Vice President Harris pledged to support a regulatory framework for digital currencies, which has stimulated a surge in the crypto market. $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ Intraday gains of 6%, reaching $66,233, the highest in two weeks; $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ Moving above $2600.

As of the time of writing, despite a slight pullback in Bitcoin, it still stands above $65,000. It is worth noting that despite the sideways movement since the halving, Bitcoin has seen a 55% increase this year, outperforming global major asset classes.

Additionally, besides the crypto market, several crypto ETFs in the Hong Kong stock market have also shown strong performance recently. $Bosera HashKey Bitcoin ETF (03008.HK)$and$Harvest Bitcoin Spot ETF (03439.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF (03042.HK)$ Up more than 12% in the past 20 days, $CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF (03066.HK)$ Up nearly 12%, $ChinaAMC Ether ETF (03046.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Bosera HashKey Ether ETF (03009.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Harvest Ether Spot ETF (03179.HK)$ All rose by more than 10%, $CSOP Ether Futures ETF (03068.HK)$ up nearly 9%.

In the US stock market, overnight many crypto concept stocks also collectively surged, $CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$ Up nearly 13%, $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ $Iris Energy (IREN.US)$ In terms of news, the iPhone 16 series is expected to be released in September 2024 and may be officially unveiled on September 10. Soochow Securities' research report also pointed out that with August entering the peak season for iPhone new component stocking, production and delivery are expected to accelerate, and the market is highly concerned about the launch of the iPhone 16 series in September.

Despite the fact that $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ Overnight 5% drop, but the company's recent 20-day increase has reached 50%, outperforming Nvidia, with a nearly 220% increase in performance so far this year.

It is worth noting that in the past six months, MicroStrategy has been very aggressive in buying Bitcoin.

In February 2024, MicroStrategy held 0.19 million bitcoins -> In April 2024, MicroStrategy held 0.214 million bitcoins -> In June 2024, MicroStrategy held 0.226 million bitcoins -> In September 2024, MicroStrategy held 0.245 million bitcoins -> In October 2024, MicroStrategy held 0.252 million bitcoins.

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor said the ultimate goal is to become a Bitcoin Bank and build a trillion-dollar company.

In the US stock market, there are as many as 5 ETFs mainly tracking MicroStrategy, meaning the attention the company receives is huge. Note that typically only giants like Nvidia, Apple, Amazon enjoy this kind of treatment.

Double long MicroStrategy: $T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU.US)$

1.75 times long MicroStrategy: $TIDAL TRUST II DEFIANCE DAILY TARGET 1.75X LNG MSTR ETF (MSTX.US)$

MicroStrategy's options strategy: $TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MSTR OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF (MSTY.US)$

Double short MSTR: $T-Rex 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTZ.US)$

Shorting MSTR by 1.5 times:$Defiance Daily Target 1.5X Short MSTR ETF (SMST.US)$

Will bitcoin welcome a new market trend in October? Analysts see multiple factors helping to boost the cryptocurrency market.

From the perspective of the calendar effect, Bitcoin's historical performance in October is usually very strong and is expected to continue throughout Q4. Sean Farrell, Chief Digital Assets Strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC, also emphasized that Bitcoin typically sees a strong seasonal trend in the second half of October.

In addition, analyst Ali Martine stated that Bitcoin has now surpassed the 200-day moving average, indicating a strengthening bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market.

The 200-day moving average is an important technical indicator that represents the average closing price of Bitcoin over the past 200 days. It is generally considered a primary trendline for identifying long-term momentum changes.

The analyst emphasized that in the past three instances of Bitcoin breaking above the 200-day moving average, it triggered massive parabolic bull markets. The historical chart (illustrated below) shows three examples of Bitcoin breaking this line - in 2023, 2021, and 2017 (the red line in the chart below).

Every time bitcoin breaks through the 200-day moving average, the price will soar significantly, entering a parabolic bull market, with a huge percentage increase.

The most recent breakthrough of the 200-day moving average occurred around May 2023, when bitcoin surged from around $19,400 to over $73,000 in March 2024, with an astonishing increase of 274.79% during that period.

Similarly, during the 2021 cycle, bitcoin breaking through this moving average stimulated a significant price increase, accumulating a 704.94% rise.

The 2017 cycle was even more exciting, with bitcoin's price rising from around $240 to over $20,000, a cumulative increase of 7,513.24%.

Countdown to the U.S. presidential election! Could be a key factor affecting the trend of bitcoin.

U.S. presidential candidate and current Vice President Harris pledged to support a regulatory framework for digital currencies, according to a statement:

Vice President Harris knows that over 20% of African Americans hold or have held crypto assets, which is why her plan will ensure that owners and investors of digital assets can benefit from the regulatory framework, thus protecting African American men and other groups participating in this market.

Meanwhile, US presidential candidate and former president Trump actively courts digital currency voters in the 2024 presidential election and has multiple plans related to digital currencies.

Analysts believe that the recent rise in digital currencies is mainly driven by the US elections, initially from Trump's lead in prediction markets and polls, followed by semi-supportive comments on the digital currency market from Harris's campaign team. While the specifics of Harris's digital currency policy have not yet been seen, it sounds less negative than the attitude of the Biden administration.

Cryptocurrency management company Bitwise stated that Bitcoin may rise to $0.08 million this quarter, with the US election results, economy, and the cryptocurrency industry being the three main factors.

In addition, Bernstein analysts firmly believe that if Trump wins the presidential election next month, the price of Bitcoin could reach $0.08 million to $0.09 million, representing a 20%-40% increase from the current level.

Aside from the factors related to the US election, last week, Mt. Gox cryptocurrency exchange, which declared bankruptcy, postponed the deadline for repaying its remaining asset creditors for a year, easing investors' concerns about a significant influx of Bitcoin into the market leading to oversupply.

However, investors need to be aware that the cryptocurrency market carries significant risks, occasionally experiencing extreme price volatility, thus requiring cautious investment.

Editor/Somer