一般来说，黄金和美元之间存在一种反向关系，即通常所说的“负相关”。当美元升值时，黄金价格往往会下跌，反之亦然。这是因为黄金是以美元计价的，所以当美元升值时，购买同样数量的黄金需要更多的美元，这使得黄金对持有美元的投资者来说变得更加昂贵。①What is the relationship between the USD and gold? ②What is the current trend of central banks increasing gold reserves?
On October 15, Caixin reported that due to the strengthening of the USD index, most of the golden industrial concept stocks in the Hong Kong stock market weakened. As of the time of publication,$ZHAOJIN MINING (01818.HK)$,$LINGBAO GOLD (03330.HK)$,$CHINAGOLDINTL (02099.HK)$,$ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$,$SD GOLD (01787.HK)$Decreased by 5.19%, 4.11%, 3.95%, 3.94% respectively.
In terms of news, affected by the continuous strengthening of the USD, the gold price fell after reaching a daily high of $2666 per ounce on Monday. As of the press time, it fell by 0.33%, reporting $2656.5.
Generally speaking, there is an inverse relationship between gold and the USD, commonly referred to as a "negative correlation." When the USD appreciates, the price of gold often falls, and vice versa. This is because gold is priced in USD, so when the USD appreciates, purchasing the same amount of gold requires more USD, making gold more expensive for investors holding USD.
Yesterday, the remarks of the Fed Governor Waller further strengthened the market's expectations for Fed policy. Waller stated that the Fed should be more cautious when considering rate cuts. He suggested that if the inflation rate falls below 2%, although this scenario is unlikely, or if there is a deterioration in the labor market, the Fed may take rate-cutting measures in advance. However, if inflation unexpectedly rises, the Fed may pause its rate-cutting plans.
In addition to monetary policy, geopolitical tensions are also important factors affecting the gold price. According to reports, Israel may avoid attacking Iran's crude oil infrastructure, easing the market's concerns about tensions in the Middle East. The reduction of geopolitical risks may decrease the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset in the market, putting pressure on the gold price.
Central bank officials from multiple countries openly expressed support for continuing to increase their gold reserves.
Despite the impact of external market factors on the gold price, central banks from various countries are buying gold. Reports have indicated that officials from the central banks of Mexico, Mongolia, and the Czech Republic have broken the convention and publicly praised the practice of increasing their gold reserves. These officials state that against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and falling interest rates, the proportion of gold in their national central bank reserves may continue to increase in the coming years.
Since the beginning of this year, the international gold price has soared by over 25%, continuously hitting new historical highs.
Unprecedented volumes of gold purchase by central banks around the world. The managers of these central bank reserves are seeking shelter in the precious metals market to protect their national wealth from the impact of geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
However, due to the continuous rise in the gold price, the net purchases by central banks in August have slowed down to 8 tons. Regarding central banks' gold demand for the remaining timeframe of 2024, the World Gold Council maintains a positive outlook, but predicts that the total amount of central bank gold purchases may be lower than last year.
Editor / jayden
