Multiple positive factors have led to a significant increase in market activity during the National Day holiday. The number of viewings for second-hand houses in core cities has generally increased significantly compared to the period before the holiday. It is expected that with policy support, residents' confidence in property ownership will gradually recover. In the short term, the new policies will continue to take effect, and the second-hand housing market in core cities is expected to stabilize.
According to the Securities Times APP, the China Index Research Institute released a report stating that in September, the phenomenon of homeowners trading price for volume continued in the second-hand housing market, with the transaction volume decreasing compared to the previous month. Against this backdrop, at the end of September, the central government issued a series of new real estate policies, with the Political Bureau meeting on September 26 proposing to "promote the stabilization of the real estate market," while the central bank promoted reserve and interest rate cuts, lowered down payment ratios, and Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen successively optimized restrictions on home purchases and loans. Multiple positive factors have led to a significant increase in market activity during the National Day holiday. The number of viewings for second-hand houses in core cities has generally increased significantly compared to the period before the holiday. It is expected that with policy support, residents' confidence in property ownership will gradually recover. In the short term, the new policies will continue to take effect, and the market in core cities is expected to stabilize.
In September, the overall second-hand housing prices in the top ten cities showed a month-on-month decline, with the decrease similar to that of August.
Chart: Average listing price and year-on-year change in the top ten cities for second-hand residences in September 2024.
Chart: Average price and month-on-month changes for second-hand residential properties in the top ten cities from July 2020 to September 2024.
Data Source: CREIS Data
According to the real estate index system of China's hundred cities price index, in September 2024, the average price of second-hand residences in the hundred cities fell by 0.70% month-on-month, with a decrease basically remaining flat compared to the previous month; a year-on-year decrease of 7.13%. In September, the average price of second-hand residences in the top ten cities fell by 0.80% month-on-month, with a decrease basically remaining flat compared to the previous month; a year-on-year decrease of 7.55%.
Peking: In September, both the volume and price of second-hand houses declined month-on-month, and the new policies boosted the market heat in October.
Chart: Trends of the number of transactions and the price changes of second-hand residences in Beijing from July 2020 to September 2024.
Data Source: CREIS Data
In September, the price of second-hand residences in Peking continued to decline month-on-month, with a slight decrease in transaction volume, and market heat increased after the new policies were implemented at the end of the month. In September, the price of second-hand residences in Peking fell by 0.93% month-on-month. In terms of transactions, in September, 13,274 second-hand residences were sold in Peking, a month-on-month decrease of 7.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, and a slight decrease of 1.1% in cumulative transactions from January to September compared to the same period last year. At the end of September, Peking issued new real estate policies, the market heat increased during the National Day holiday, with significant growth in online consultation volume, second-hand house viewings, and other data compared to the same period in previous years and September. It is expected that there will be a significant increase in second-hand house transactions in October.
Chart: Average listing price and month-on-month changes in prices of second-hand residences in various districts of Beijing in September 2024.
Data Source: CREIS Data
Table: Typical new real estate projects in beijing in September 2024
Data Source: CREIS Data
Shanghai: In September, the volume of second-hand housing transactions decreased by 10% compared to the previous month, with the short-term effect of new policies evident, and a significant increase in short-term viewing volume.
Chart: Number of second-hand residential transactions and price trends in Shanghai from July 2020 to September 2024 compared on a monthly basis
Data Source: CREIS Data
In September, Shanghai's second-hand residential market continued the trend of "exchanging price for volume", with a significant increase in market visits after the new policy. In terms of prices, in September, the price of second-hand homes in Shanghai fell by 0.80% month-on-month. In terms of transactions, in September, Shanghai's second-hand residential transactions were 13,944 units, a decrease of 10.6% month-on-month and 8.1% year-on-year, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.3% from January to September. On September 29, Shanghai issued new control policies, such as relaxing home purchase restrictions, lowering down payment ratios, and shortening the years of exemption from value-added tax, in order to reduce the threshold and cost of residential purchases for residents. During the National Day holiday, market confidence significantly improved, coupled with intensified efforts from real estate agents, leading to improved market activity in both the central urban area and suburban areas of Shanghai.
Chart: Average listing prices and month-on-month and year-on-year changes in second-hand residential homes in each district of Shanghai in September 2024.
Data Source: CREIS Data
Table: Typical new real estate projects in Shanghai in September 2024.
Data Source: CREIS Data
Guangzhou: In September, the prices of second-hand residential homes in the districts of Guangzhou all declined month-on-month, with the overall decline narrowing.
Chart: A comparison of the month-on-month trends of second-hand residence prices in the top 100 cities, top 10 cities, and Guangzhou from July 2020 to September 2024.
Data Source: CREIS Data
In September, the prices of second-hand residences in Guangzhou continued to decline, with the listing volume still at a high level. In September, the prices of second-hand residences in Guangzhou decreased by 0.54% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous month. Looking at different districts, the prices of second-hand residences in major districts of Guangzhou all showed a decline, with Huangpu District experiencing the largest decrease, down by 1.07% month-on-month. At the end of September, Guangzhou implemented new policies in the real estate market, fully lifting purchase restrictions. It is expected that the activity in the second-hand housing market will increase in October.
Chart: Average listing prices and month-on-month comparisons of second-hand residences in various districts of Guangzhou in September 2024.
Data Source: CREIS Data
Table: Typical new real estate projects in Guangzhou in September 2024.
Data Source: CREIS Data
Shenzhen: In September, the year-on-year growth of second-hand residential transactions exceeded 30%, and the wait-and-see sentiment was alleviated under the end-of-month policy push.
Chart: The number of transactions and the month-on-month trend of second-hand housing prices in Shenzhen from July 2020 to September 2024
Data Source: CREIS Data
In September, the transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen saw a significant year-on-year increase on a low base. In terms of transactions, in September, there were 3,191 transactions of second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen, a month-on-month decrease of 16.1%, a year-on-year increase of 33.0% on a low base, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 42.3% from January to September. In terms of prices, in September, the prices of second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen fell by 0.84%. On September 29, Shenzhen issued new real estate policies, including relaxing purchase restrictions, canceling sales restrictions, adjusting the exemption of value-added tax from 5 years to 2 years, optimizing personal housing loans, and under the influence of bullish policies, the number of second-hand house viewings has increased.
Chart: The average listing price and year-on-year comparison of second-hand residential properties in various districts of Shenzhen in September 2024
Data Source: CREIS Data
Table: Typical new real estate projects in Shenzhen in September 2024.
Data Source: CREIS Data
Hangzhou: The volume of second-hand residential transactions in September fell on a monthly basis, with year-on-year growth on a low base, and the price decline narrowed on a month-on-month basis.
Figure: Trends in the number of second-hand residential transactions and second-hand residential prices on a month-on-month basis from July 2020 to September 2024 in Hangzhou.
Data Source: CREIS Data
In September, the volume of second-hand houses in Hangzhou saw a slight decrease, while prices continued to fall compared to the previous period. In terms of transactions, there were 4,402 transactions of second-hand residences in Hangzhou in September, a decrease of 9.3% compared to the previous month, but an increase of 56.3% year-on-year due to a low base. The cumulative year-on-year growth from January to September was 20.7%. As for prices, the price of second-hand residences in Hangzhou dropped by 0.63% from the previous period, with the decline narrowing by 0.26 percentage points compared to August. During the National Day holiday, driven by favorable pre-holiday policies, areas such as the Hangzhou Asian Games Village and the Future Technology City attracted high attention, leading to a significant increase in market activity compared to before the holiday.
Figure: Average listing prices and year-on-year changes in September 2024 for second-hand residential properties in each district of Hangzhou
Data Source: CREIS Data
Table: Typical new housing projects in Hangzhou in September 2024
Data Source: CREIS Data
Nanjing: In September, the volume of second-hand residence transactions remained stable, with the market continuing to 'exchange volume for price'.
Chart: Comparison of the number of second-hand residence transactions and the price trends of second-hand residences in Nanjing from July 2020 to September 2024.
Data Source: CREIS Data
In Nanjing, the second-hand housing transactions were basically stable compared to the previous month, with a decrease in prices month-on-month. In September, the overall market heat of second-hand houses continued at the same level as the previous month, with 7,303 transactions, a 2.6% decrease month-on-month, a 10.0% year-on-year increase, and a 5.0% year-on-year decrease from January to September. In terms of prices, the price of second-hand residential properties in Nanjing fell by 1.03% month-on-month. With policy support boosting market confidence at the end of September, it is expected that the activity in the second-hand housing market will rebound in October.
Chart: Average listing price and month-on-month comparison of second-hand residential properties in various districts of Nanjing in September 2024.
Data Source: CREIS Data
Table: Typical new real estate projects in Nanjing in September 2024
Data Source: CREIS Data
Wuhan: The month-on-month decline in the price of second-hand residences narrowed slightly in September.
Chart: Comparison of month-on-month trends in the prices of second-hand residences in the top 100 cities, top 10 cities, and Wuhan from July 2020 to September 2024
Data Source: CREIS Data
The prices in Wuhan's second-hand housing market continue to decline, with the month-on-month decline narrowing. In September, the month-on-month price of second-hand residences in Wuhan fell by 1.15%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from August. With the introduction of a series of supportive policies by the end of September, residents' expectations for housing prices have improved slightly. It is expected that the price decline in October will continue to narrow for second-hand houses.
Chart: Average listing prices for second-hand residences in various districts of wuhan in September 2024 and year-on-year comparison
Data Source: CREIS Data
Table: Typical new housing projects in wuhan in September 2024
Data Source: CREIS Data
Chengdu: In September, the price decline of second-hand houses narrowed on a month-on-month basis, and the volume increased slightly on a year-on-year basis
Chart: Comparison of the month-on-month trend of second-hand residential prices in one hundred cities, top ten cities, and chengdu from July 2020 to September 2024
Data Source: CREIS Data
The second-hand housing transaction volume and price in Chengdu slightly decreased on a month-on-month basis, while maintaining year-on-year growth. The market activity during the National Day holiday has increased to some extent. In terms of prices, in September, the second-hand residential prices in Chengdu fell by 0.54% compared to the previous month, narrowing by 0.12 percentage points compared to August. In terms of transactions, in September, Chengdu's second-hand residential transactions were 15,208 sets, a month-on-month decrease of 13.1%, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, and a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 6.6% from January to September. During the National Day holiday, the activity in the second-hand housing market in Chengdu significantly increased, with a noticeable growth in the number of viewings and transaction volume compared to the period before the holiday.
Chart: Average listing prices and month-on-month and year-on-year changes in second-hand residential properties in various districts of Chengdu in September 2024
Data Source: CREIS Data
Table: Typical new housing projects in Chengdu in September 2024
Data Source: CREIS Data
Chongqing (main urban area): In September, the price decline of second-hand residences continued to narrow, with market activity picking up during the National Day holiday.
Chart: A comparison of the month-on-month trend of second-hand residential prices in the top 100 cities, top ten cities, and Chongqing from July 2020 to September 2024.
Data Source: CREIS Data
Chongqing's second-hand residential prices continued to adjust, with slightly restored market confidence during the holiday. In September, the prices of second-hand houses in Chongqing continued to decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.67%, narrowing by 0.49 percentage points from August. During the National Day holiday, market activity for second-hand houses in Chongqing picked up, and it is expected that the market performance will improve in October.
Chart: Average listing prices and year-on-year changes for second-hand residences in various districts of Chongqing's main urban area in September 2024.
Data Source: CREIS Data
Table: Typical new housing projects in Chongqing in September 2024.
Data Source: CREIS Data
Tianjin: In September, the month-on-month decline in the prices of second-hand houses is basically the same as the previous month.
Chart: A comparison of the month-on-month trend of second-hand residential prices in one hundred cities, the top ten cities, and Tianjin from July 2020 to September 2024.
Data Source: CREIS Data
In Tianjin, the prices of second-hand residences in the urban area continued to decline month-on-month, and the market is still in a trend of trading volume for price. In September, the prices of second-hand residences in Tianjin decreased by 0.71% month-on-month, a decrease that was basically the same as in August. During the National Day holiday, the daily average transaction volume of second-hand houses in the core area of Tianjin was higher than the pre-holiday weekend level, and the market activity has improved somewhat.
Chart: Average listing price and year-on-year comparison of second-hand residences in various districts of Tianjin in September 2024
Data Source: CREIS Data
Table: Typical new real estate projects in Tianjin in September 2024
Data Source: CREIS Data
"Stabilizing the decline" effectively boosts market confidence, and the "comprehensive" supporting policies may continue to promote market recovery.
At the end of September, a series of central support policies were introduced, and the policy spirit of "promoting the stabilization of the real estate market" greatly boosted market confidence. During the National Day holiday, both the viewing volume and transaction volume of second-hand housing markets in core cities showed significant improvement compared to the pre-holiday period. As transactions gradually emerge in the signed data during the National Day, market transaction data in October is expected to see a significant increase. In addition, on October 12, the Ministry of Finance mentioned multiple policy measures to support the real estate sector, and it is expected that a package of supporting policies for real estate will accelerate implementation in the fourth quarter, with market confidence expected to further recover and core city markets expected to stabilize.
