Nomura released a research report stating that jd.com logistics (02618.HK) will be included in Alibaba's (09988.HK) Taobao Tmall's merchant logistics options by mid-October. The bank believes that this logistics partnership will allow jd.com logistics to gain mid- to high-end merchants on the Taobao Tmall platform, and have relative price competitiveness in express services, thereby increasing jd.com logistics' express delivery revenue.
Furthermore, Nomura believes that jd.com logistics can efficiently complete orders from Taobao and Tmall platforms directly from its warehouses without the need to outsource to other logistics providers, enhancing the attractiveness and revenue potential of the group's Integrated Supply Chain (ISC). Given the time needed for the group to improve logistics services on the Taobao Tmall platform, the estimated impact of this partnership on the group's 2024 fiscal year revenue is relatively limited, but it still raises the revenue forecast for the 2025 fiscal year by 4%.
Nomura stated that due to product and network structure optimization, improved management and control measures, and increased resource utilization, it is expected that jd.com logistics will once again achieve profit growth in the third quarter. The bank has raised the group's adjusted net profit forecast for the 2024 and 2025 fiscal years by 14% and 17% respectively, to reflect the upward revision in revenue forecast and higher net profit margin forecast. The bank has upgraded the group's rating from 'Neutral' to 'Buy', with the target price raised from 10.3 yuan to 16.5 yuan.
