Source: Glonui.

On October 14th local time, OPEC's latest monthly report showed that for the third consecutive month, it revised down the forecasts for global oil demand in 2024 and 2025, believing that the forecasts still reflect healthy, above-average growth.

Global oil demand growth will be 0.1 million barrels per day less than the forecast in September, with the new forecast showing demand growth of 1.93 million barrels per day in 2024 and 1.64 million barrels per day in 2025.

Affected by this news, US WTI crude oil fell 2.3% on Monday in the Hong Kong stock market. $PETROCHINA (00857.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$CNOOC (00883.HK)$ Fell more than 2%. $SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK)$ Fell more than 1%.

In the A-share market, Tong Petrotech Corp. fell by more than 5%, Xinjiang Zhundong Petroleum Technology, Zhongman Petroleum and Natural Gas Group Corp.,Ltd. fell by more than 4%, xinjiang beiken energy engineering, cnooc, offshore oil engineering, China Oilfield Services fell by more than 2%.

Oil demand expectations have been lowered for the third time.

According to the report, OPEC has lowered its oil demand growth expectations for the next two years for the third consecutive month, while also recognizing the global slowdown in fuel demand.

The monthly report indicates that global oil consumption will increase by 1.9 million barrels per day by 2024, a decrease of 0.106 million barrels per day from previous forecasts.

This revision is mainly due to actual data received, and slightly lower expectations for certain regions.

With three consecutive cuts, OPEC is starting to retreat from its strong bullish expectations maintained since the beginning of the year. Even after production cuts, its demand estimates remain an outlier (higher than Wall Street banks and trading companies), at the top of the Saudi Aramco expectations range.

It is worth noting that the major reason for lowering the forecast for 2024 is the large Asian countries. OPEC has downgraded the growth forecast of large Asian countries from 0.65 million barrels per day to 0.58 million barrels per day.

Bloomberg pointed out that with the third consecutive downgrade, OPEC is beginning to abandon the strong bullish forecasts seen earlier this year. The actions of OPEC members themselves also indicate a lack of confidence in the outlook, as they have delayed plans to resume suspended oil production.

However, OPEC's outlook is more optimistic than many other institutions have predicted. For example, the International Energy Agency (IEA), which will release its latest market report on October 15th, previously forecasted in September that global oil demand in 2024 would increase by 0.9 million barrels per day.

Although OPEC's adjustments are significant, they indicate that the organization has recognized the potential for challenging times ahead. The escalating tensions in the Middle East have not managed to outweigh the market's weak expectations for the fundamentals in 2025, preventing a breakthrough in oil prices.

It is worth noting that with the Federal Reserve's previous interest rate cuts, the global market has also entered a new round of easing. As for the reasons for the shift in monetary policy, besides alleviating price pressures, the cooling of economic momentum is also worthy of attention.

EIA data shows that last week US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.81 million barrels, indicating that the surplus produced by refineries partially offset the increase in demand. Furthermore, despite a decrease in gasoline inventories, overall market demand for gasoline remains weak following the traditional summer driving season.

Bearish outlook.

Looking globally, due to the complex and volatile situation in the Middle East, international oil prices may still experience significant fluctuations.

After the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on October 7th last year, the disruption to the global oil market was minimal for a while. However, recent market sentiment is subtly changing.

Last week, due to concerns that Israel's retaliatory missile strikes against Iran might target Iran's oil industry, oil prices surged significantly. Many industry analysts expressed concerns about the real threat to oil market supply.

The overall global economic environment will also exert pressure on oil prices. Industry insiders point out that the International Monetary Fund has lowered this year's global economic growth rate to 3.2%. Until the fourth quarter, international oil prices will be restrained by this. Unless it is an event like the pandemic or the Russia-Ukraine conflict, international oil prices will not rise significantly.

80 US dollars may be the recent peak of Brent crude oil prices; and there is no room for a sharp decline. However, the volatility of international oil prices will increase.

Tom Kloza, Director of Global Energy Analysis at the Oil Price Information Service, believes that the oil market will enter a turbulent year in 2025, and crude oil prices may drop "very, very" low.

Although there is concern that the Middle East conflict may escalate and drive up oil prices, crude oil prices will face greater downward pressure in 2025.

Kloza also stated that large investors are no longer trying to "chase" oil, which may limit the upside potential of crude oil prices. He mentioned the forecasts of other energy forecasting institutions, which predict that oil prices could drop to as low as $50 per barrel, a decrease of about 37% from the current trading price of Brent crude oil.

Editor / jayden