中信证券认为，过去一年在云端算力和存储涨价拉动下半导体周期整体显著修复，目前处于温和复苏状态。展望2025年，全球半导体产业规模有望持续成长，云端算力高景气有望持续，同时期待端侧AI成为拉动半导体产业继续上行的新增长点。国内半导体产业作为科技新质生产力的底层基座，受益政策支持、周期反转、增量创新、国产替代多方面利好带动，并在端侧AI领域参与度更高，有望在下一阶段迎来更好的表现。Chip stocks rebounded in the morning, as of the time of publication,$SOLOMON SYSTECH (02878.HK)$up 3.57%, at 0.58 Hong Kong dollars;$SHANGHAI FUDAN (01385.HK)$up 4.85%, at 17.3 Hong Kong dollars;$SMIC (00981.HK)$up 4.50%, at 27.85 Hong Kong dollars;$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$Rises by 3.24%, trading at 23.9 Hong Kong dollars.
On the news front, according to media reports, the USA government discussed restrictions.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$And other US companies from selling advanced ai chips to some countries. The new proposal will set limits on export licenses for certain countries. Sources say officials are focusing on Gulf countries, which are increasingly interested in ai datacenters and have strong financial resources.
In addition, according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 14th, in the first three quarters of 2024, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports reached 32.33 trillion yuan, breaking 32 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period of history, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. Among them, in the first three quarters, China's exports of high-end equipment manufacturing 60 index increased by 43.4%, while exports of semiconductors, autos, and home appliances increased by 22%, 22.5%, and 15.5% respectively.
Citic Securities believes that in the past year, the recovery of the semiconductor cycle has been significantly boosted by the price increase in cloud computing power and storage, and is currently in a mild recovery state. Looking ahead to 2025, the global semiconductor industry is expected to continue growing, with high prosperity in cloud computing power expected to persist. At the same time, the expectation is for edge AI to become a new growth point driving the continued upward trend of the semiconductor industry. The domestic semiconductor industry, as the underlying base of technological new quality productivity, is benefiting from policy support, cyclical reversal, incremental innovation, multiple favorable factors for domestic substitution, and higher participation in the field of edge AI, poised for better performance in the next stage.
Editor/Rocky
