但由于三周后的美国总统大选、美联储政策放松步伐不确定，加之中东地缘政治风险不断升级，市场风险犹存令投资者仍然担忧。美股财报季拉开帷幕，市场焦点转向公司业绩。美国银行、高盛将于周二公布最新业绩，摩根士丹利定于周三公布业绩。Source: Wall Street See
Authors: Fang Jiayao, Li Dan, Long Yue, Jiang Zihan
The three major US stock indexes closed higher for two consecutive days; Nvidia rose more than 2%, hitting a historic high for the first time in four months; China concept stocks hit a low for the month, with Xpeng down nearly 10%, Nio down over 7%, and Pinduoduo down 6%. The US bond market was closed. The US Dollar Index rebounded to a two-month high, the Japanese Yen hit a two-month low, offshore Renminbi fell nearly 300 points below 7.10; Bitcoin surged nearly $4,000 during the day, breaking through the $66,000 level. The strengthening of the US dollar led to a general decline in commodities: crude oil fell near a one-week low for two consecutive days; gold turned lower after hitting a new high for over a week; the entire basic metals sector stopped rising for two consecutive days, with London copper hitting a four-week low.
Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo's earnings released last week exceeded expectations, signs of the US banking industry's profit recovery drove the S&P 500 and Dow to refresh historic highs last week, with the S&P 500 closing above 5800 points for the first time. Boosted by technology stocks, especially chip stocks, European and American stock markets rose together on Monday, with the German index, S&P, and Dow all hitting record closing highs. Nvidia hit a record closing high, approaching Apple's market cap. Comments indicated that investors expect signs of a soft landing for the US economy.
However, due to uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election in three weeks, uncertainty about the pace of the Fed's easing, and escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, lingering market risks still worry investors. The US earnings season has begun, shifting market focus to corporate performance. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs will release their latest earnings on Tuesday, while Morgan Stanley is scheduled to announce earnings on Wednesday.
Influential Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed concerns that the US economy may still be running at a faster pace than expected, suggesting that future rate cuts will need to be "more cautious." He also hinted that future rate cuts would be smaller than the significant cuts in September. Waller expects that due to hurricanes and strikes, the US may lose 100,000 non-farm jobs in October. On the same day, 2026 voting committee member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated that further moderate rate cuts by the Fed in the next few quarters may be appropriate.
The US bond spot market was closed for a day in observance of Columbus Day. Following remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Waller, US 10-year Treasury futures rose about 3 ticks on the intraday short term, but overall remained in a downward trend for the day. The comments from the two officials continued to confirm that future Fed rate cuts would be relatively small, with the US dollar continuing its rally to a two-month high, putting pressure on commodities. OPEC lowered oil demand forecasts for the third consecutive time, leading to a more than 2% intraday drop in oil prices and dragging down energy stocks. Late reports indicated that Israel does not intend to target Iran's oil and nuclear facilities, causing oil prices to briefly expand to nearly 5%. Precious metals gold and silver, along with London industrial base metals, all fell.
US stocks rose across the board and closed near daily highs, with the Dow, S&P 500 hitting consecutive new closing highs for two days. Investors flocked to buy technology and chip stocks, driving the Nasdaq up over 1.1%, led by Nvidia, which closed up 2.43% setting a new closing high. Most sectors closed up, but the energy sector fell due to oil prices, while Ethereum futures surged by 6.7%, driving Coinbase up by over 11%.
US stock indices rose across the board. The S&P 500 closed up 44.82 points, or 0.77%, at 5859.85 points. The Dow, closely related to the economic cycle, rose 201.36 points, or 0.47%, to 43065.22 points. The Nasdaq, dominated by tech stocks, rose 159.75 points, or 0.87%, to 18502.69 points. The Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.82%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 tech stocks, rose by 1.20%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index, which is more sensitive to the economic cycle, rose by 0.64%. The VIX fear index fell by 3.76% to 19.69.
US industry ETFs mostly rose. The semiconductor ETF rose by nearly 2%, while the technology industry ETF, utility ETF, global tech stock ETF, and banking ETF all rose by at least 1%. The global aviation industry ETF and regional bank ETF also rose by close to 1%, while the financial ETF and healthcare ETF both rose by at least 0.5%.
Most of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index rose, with the information technology/tech sector rising by 1.36%, approaching the historic high set on July 10; the utility sector rose by 1.29%, the financial sector by about 0.6%, the telecom sector by over 0.5%, the consumer discretionary sector by over 0.2% with the smallest increase, while the energy sector fell by 0.1%, showing the worst performance.
Among the 'Seven Sisters of Tech', only Amazon saw a decline. Nvidia closed up 2.43%, setting a new closing high after four months, at $138.07, with a market cap of $3.39 trillion. 'Metaverse' Meta rose by 0.08%, Tesla by 0.62%, Microsoft by 0.68%, Google Class A by 1.05%, Apple by 1.65%, while Amazon fell by 0.68%.
Most chip stocks rose. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.8%, the SOXX industry ETF rose by 1.84%, the Nvidia two-times long ETF rose by 5.02%. Taiwan Semiconductor ADR rose by 0.73%, reaching a historical high with an increase of over 1.8% intraday, total market cap once again reaching 1 trillion US dollars. Arm Holdings rose by 6.84%, Kla Corp. rose by 3.22%, Qualcomm rose by 4.74%, ASML Holding ADR rose by 3.76%, Micron Technology rose by 1.33%, Broadcom rose by 0.46%, while Intel fell by 0.51%, and AMD fell by 1.56%.
AI concept stocks varied. BullFrog AI fell by 2.22%, Snowflake fell by 0.7%, Super Micro Computer fell by 0.86%, Palantir fell by 0.25%, CrowdStrike fell by 3.03%, SoundHound AI, a company Nvidia holds shares in, rose by 5.7%, C3.ai rose by 1.25%, Dell Technologies rose by 0.49%, BigBear.ai rose by 18.63%, Oracle rose by 0.2%, Serve Robotics rose by 2.76%.
Most Chinese concept stocks fell. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 2.09%, China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) fell by 2.89%, China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) fell by 2.74%, FTSE China 3x Bull ETF (YINN) fell by 6.19%, FTSE China 3x Bear ETF (YANG) rose by 5.96%, 'China Dragon' ETF RONDHL CHINA ETF (DRAG) fell by 3.62%. FTSE A50 index futures continued trading lower by 0.27%, closing at 13800.000 points.
Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Fangdd Network fell by 17.19%, Tiger Brokers fell by 15.2%, Nio Inc. fell by 7.21%, Xpeng fell by 9.77%, Meituan ADR fell by 6.21%, Pinduoduo fell by 6.03%, Baidu fell by 4.52%, Netease fell by 3.78%, Zeekr fell by 3.65%, Bilibili fell by 3.62%, Mengniu Dairy ADR fell by 2.93%, Trip.com fell by 2.14%, Alibaba fell by 2.12%, New Oriental fell by 2.1%, Li Auto Inc. fell by 1.59%, Tencent ADR fell by 1.47%, Vipshop fell by 0.3%, while JD.com rose by 0.71%.
Other key stocks include: (1) Boeing initially dropped by over 3.3%, finally declining by 1.34%. After a month-long strike, Boeing announced a large layoff of 0.017 million employees, accounting for about 10% of the total staff, with the first batch of 777X aircraft deliveries delayed by a year. (2) Adobe rose by over 3.8% and then slightly dropped to rise by 2.87%. The company has begun introducing artificial intelligence video tools. (3) Alongside the sharp rise in Bitcoin, most crypto concept stocks rose. The cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase rose by 11.32%; in Bitcoin ETFs, the double long Bitcoin ETF rose by 8.9%, BTCW rose by 4.43%, EZBC rose by 4.42%.
European stocks generally rose, luxury goods concept stocks mostly fell, semiconductor concept stocks generally rose, and the German stock index rose by about 0.7% to hit a new record high at the close:
European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.53% at 524.76 points. Eurozone STOXX 50 index closed up 0.74%. The technology sector rose by 1.7%, while the travel and leisure sector fell by 0.8%. Among the component stocks, gambling companies Entain and Flutter plummeted due to potential tax increase reports, with Entain falling by 8.03%. European luxury concept stocks generally fell, with Kering Group falling by 3.83%, Swatch Group by 2.94%, LVMH Group by 2.34%, Burberry by 1.18%, L'Oreal, Beiersdorf, Pernod Ricard, Swatch Group, Hermes dropping by up to 0.63%, while Hugo Boss rose by 0.43%. European semiconductor concept stocks generally rose. BE Semiconductor Industries closed up by 3.27%, ASML Holding up by 2.76%, Soitec, ASM International, Infineon rose by up to 2.5%, while Germany's Infineon and STMicroelectronics rose by over 1.7%.
Germany's DAX 30 index closed up 0.69% to reach a historical high. France's CAC 40 index closed up 0.32%. Italy's FTSE MIB index closed up 1.09%. UK's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.47%. Netherlands' AEX index closed up 0.73%. Spain's IBEX 35 index closed up 1.12%.
The US bond market closed for Columbus Day, leading to a steepening yield curve for UK government bonds, as the Italy/Germany 10-year bond yield spread hit its narrowest since March.
Eurozone: At the close, the benchmark 10-year German bond yield rose by 0.9 basis points to 2.275%. The 2-year German bond yield increased by 2.2 basis points. Market expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England cooled, with the current forecast for a rate cut of 124 basis points by the end of 2025, 4 basis points lower than last Friday's forecast. The 10-year UK bond yield rose by 3.0 basis points, and the 2-year UK bond yield rose by 0.8 basis points. The 10-year French bond yield fell by 0.4 basis points. The 10-year Italian bond yield fell by 1.4 basis points.
The US dollar index rose by over 0.3% to a two-month high. The yen weakened towards the 150 level. Offshore yuan lost the 7.10 level intraday. The euro fell to a two-month low as markets expected the ECB to cut interest rates for the third time this year at this week's meeting. Bitcoin rose by about 4.54% to break through the $66,000 mark.
The US dollar: The US Dollar Index DXY rose by 0.32% to 103.215 points, with an intraday trading range of 102.966-103.358 points. At 03:01 Beijing time, it rose to 103.358 points, approaching the August 8th peak of 103.546 points. It had dropped to 100.157 points on September 27th.
The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose by 0.33% to 1246.84 points, with an intraday trading range of 1242.80-1247.80 points.
Non-dollar currencies: The euro fell 0.28% against the US dollar, the British pound fell 0.05% against the US dollar, and the US dollar rose 0.62% against the Swiss franc; Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar fell 0.41% against the US dollar, the New Zealand dollar fell 0.26% against the US dollar, and the US dollar rose 0.21% against the Canadian dollar. The Swedish krona rose 0.40% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone rose 0.85%.
Yen: The yen fell 0.47% against the US dollar, at 149.83 yen, with an intraday trading range of 148.98-149.98 yen. The yen fell 0.20% against the euro, at 163.43 yen. The yen fell 0.41% against the British pound, at 195.654 yen.
Offshore Renminbi (CNH): The offshore renminbi fell 245 points against the US dollar in the final session, at 7.0956 yuan, rising to a daily high of 7.0712 in the Asian session, falling to 7.1001 in the midday session of US stocks, down 290 points intraday, hitting a low since October 4.
Cryptocurrencies mostly rose: The largest market-cap leader Bitcoin rose 4.54% at the close, at $66,180.00. The second-largest Ethereum rose 6.71% at the close, at $2,631.50.
OPEC has downgraded oil demand forecasts for the third consecutive time, with both US oil and Brent crude falling by over 2%. Reports emerged near the close stating that Israel does not intend to attack Iran's oil and nuclear targets, causing oil prices to briefly plunge by nearly 5%.
Crude oil: WTI November crude oil futures fell by $1.73, a decrease of 2.29%, to $73.83 per barrel. U.S. crude oil briefly turned higher before noon and rose above $76. U.S. crude oil maintained a downward trend throughout the day, hitting a low of over 2.8% during European stock trading, pushing below $73.40.
Brent: Brent December crude oil futures fell by $1.58, a decrease of 2.00%, to $77.46 per barrel. Brent crude oil came close to turning higher during the U.S. stock market before noon. Brent crude oil maintained a downward trend throughout the day, falling below 2.7% during European stock trading, breaking the $76.90 mark.
On the news front: OPEC has lowered global oil demand growth expectations for the third consecutive month, delaying the resumption of paused crude production plans. Despite the Middle East conflict boosting oil prices, efforts by OPEC to boost prices have been affected by countries like Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia failing to fulfill production cut commitments. OPEC currently predicts oil demand to increase by 1.9 million barrels per day in 2024, lower than the previous projection of 2 million barrels per day. The organization anticipates oil demand to grow by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025, less than the previous forecast of 1.7 million barrels per day. Additionally, investors continue to closely monitor tensions in the Middle East.
Of note, after the close of crude oil trading, according to The Washington Post, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu informed the United States that Israel does not intend to target Iran's oil and nuclear facilities, but rather its military forces.
Natural gas: U.S. November natural gas futures fell by 5.24%, to $2.6320 per million British thermal units. European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures rose by 1.89%, to 40.400 euros per megawatt-hour. ICE UK natural gas futures rose by 1.32%, to 100.680 pence per kilocalorie.
The U.S. dollar rising to a two-month high pressured gold prices, with New York gold futures falling by over 0.4% on Monday, while silver futures dropped by about 1.1%.
Gold: COMEX December gold futures closed up 0.45% to $2664.30 per ounce. Spot gold in the Asian market maintained a downtrend, with the deepest drop exceeding 0.5% to approach $2640. European stocks reversed their decline in pre-market trading, hitting a daily high of nearly 0.4% to approach $2670, reaching over a week's high, and then continued to decline, closing down 0.28% at $2648.88 per ounce.
Silver: COMEX December silver futures closed down 1.15% at $31.390 per ounce. Spot silver maintained a downtrend throughout the day, with the lowest point in the Asian market down nearly 2% to around $30.90, and closing down 1.08% at $31.1982 per ounce.
Chief Market Strategist Phillip Streible of Blue Line Futures stated that gold faces 'a lot of minor resistance,' including a stronger dollar, a weaker euro, weaker base metals, and profit-taking.
London industrial base metals all declined: Benchmarked by 'Copper Doctor,' copper fell nearly 1.35% to $9660 per ton. COMEX copper futures fell by 2.00%, to $4.4037 per pound. London lead fell over 1.52%. London zinc fell over 2.28%. London aluminum fell over 1.44%. London tin fell by around 2.31%. London nickel fell over 1.08%.
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