根据公司公告，361 度24Q3 线下10%增长，线上增速环比24Q2 略有下降。分渠道来看，1）24Q3 线下流水增速虽较24Q2 有所放缓，（24Q2 主品牌/童装零售流水同比增长约10%/中双位数），但在消费低迷背景下仍保持10%增长仍能够体现品牌韧性，我们分析主要受益于其高性价比定位符合当前消费趋势，以及品牌仍有开店和扩面积空间。2）公司线上流水增速略有放缓（24Q2 电商流水同比增长30%-35%），我们分析主要由于618 期间公司销售良好，透支部分Q3 销售，24Q4 在双十一的带动下，电商平台增速有望提升。Incident Overview
The company announced 2024Q3 operating data: 361 degree retail sales of major brands increased by about 10% year on year, retail sales of 361 degree children's clothing brands increased by about 10% year on year, and retail sales of 361 degree e-commerce platform increased by about 20% year on year.
Analytical judgment:
According to the company announcement, 361 degrees 24Q3 grew 10% offline, and the online growth rate declined slightly compared to 24Q2. By channel, 1) Although the 24Q3 offline sales growth rate has slowed compared to 24Q2 (24Q2 main brands/children's clothing retail sales increased by about 10% /medium double digit year on year), maintaining 10% growth still reflects brand resilience in the context of sluggish consumption. Our analysis mainly benefits from its cost-effective positioning in line with current consumer trends, and that the brand still has room to open and expand its area. 2) The growth rate of the company's online turnover slowed slightly (24Q2 e-commerce turnover increased 30%-35% year-on-year). Our analysis is mainly due to the company's good sales during the 618 period, overdraft part of Q3 sales, and the growth rate of e-commerce platforms is expected to increase in 24Q4, driven by Double Eleven.
From a product perspective, we continue to adhere to the purpose of technology empowering professional sports, and launch products such as FUTURA S outdoor running shoes, Feibiao 2, and Rain Screen 8, to create a comfortable and practical running experience for runners with high-quality materials, new technology, and self-developed technology.
In terms of racing, 1) The Zhengzhou Marathon started, and the 361-degree professional elite marathon racing shoes, Feibiao 2, activated the runners' status with strong track performance. Feibiao 2 helped Derseh KINDIE KASSIE and Sisay Meseret GOLA set the 361-degree racing shoe best record and the 361-degree Grand Slam women's best record respectively. The brand entered the top 10 of the Grand Slam for the first time. 2) Feibiao 2 and FeiRan 4 successfully helped elite runners Wang Jiahao and Wang Lianzheng get the best personal PB. 3) 361° helped China's national rope skipping team and won a total of 144 medals at the 2024 Asian Rope Skipping Championships, including 65 gold medals, 43 silver medals, and 36 bronze medals. They won 7 team championships and broke 15 Asian records.
In terms of marketing activities, Spencer Dinwiddie began a 2024 “full power” trip to China on 7.20, visiting 6 cities: Humen, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Anyang, Handan, and Harbin, to deeply interact with fans and create a new boom. Kentavios Cardville-Pope began an 8-day “2024 KCP China Tour” on 8.20, visiting 7 cities including Nanjing, Dezhou, Shijiazhuang and Changsha, and personally visiting the 2024 season “Touch the Earth and Burn” finals at the end of August.
361 Degrees officially announced that it will become the official partner of the Aichi-Nagoya Asian Games 2026 Asian Games, increasing the brand's awareness and influence around the world. The company has also become the top strategic partner of the 2024 Fuzhou Marathon, which will inject hardcore technology and racing genes into the event.
Investment advice
According to our analysis, (1) In the short term, the consumption downtrend has benefited 361 degrees. In terms of running shoes, in the third quarter of this year, the company launched running shoes such as FUTURA S outdoor running shoes, Feibiao 2, and Rain Screen 8 generation; in terms of basketball shoes, BIG3 upgraded versions 5.0 QUICK and PRO were launched this year; for outdoor use, the Karuno series was launched this year. (2) Full year of 2024: We expect that the main brand and children's clothing stores will each increase by 100-200 stores this year. Currently, the main brand/children's clothing store area is estimated to be around 140/110 square meters, and there is room for expansion, so the same store is expected to grow by more than 10%; (3) although online is slowing down, it will maintain double-digit growth; (4) Olay's new consumer format is expected to provide additional volume for the company's performance growth. Maintaining the profit forecast, the estimated revenue for 24/25/26 is 10.078/11.616/13.353 billion yuan; the net profit for 24-26 is 1.181/1.395/1.63 billion yuan; corresponding to 24-26 EPS of 0.57/0.67/0.79, and the closing price of HK$4.23 on October 14, 2024 corresponds to a PE of 7/6/5X for 24-26 (corresponding 1 HKD = 0.91 yuan), respectively, maintained “Buy” rating.
Risk warning
Excellent product system reform results fall short of expectations; risk of improving store efficiency falling short of expectations; risk of increasing investment in new brand promotion; systemic risk.
