Most economists predict that if former President Trump takes office again, the United States' inflation, interest rates, and fiscal deficit will be more severe than the policies proposed by Vice President Harris.

According to a survey by The Wall Street Journal, out of 50 economists surveyed, 68% believe that if Trump returns to office, the pace of price increases will be faster than during Harris's term. This percentage is a significant increase from 56% in July. Only 12% of economists believe that after Harris is elected, the inflation rate will be higher. The remaining economists believe that the policies of both candidates will have a similar impact on inflation.

Harris's Democratic Party proposes tax breaks for newborns and first-time homebuyers; while Trump advocates tax cuts, increasing social security benefits, and eliminating deductions for car loan interest and state local taxes.

With only one month left until the 2024 US presidential election, the US economy seems increasingly uncertain. Will inflation be able to return to the Federal Reserve's 2% target? What is the future trend of interest rates? How will the US stock market react? A series of questions are currently preoccupying Wall Street.

If Trump is elected, inflation and deficits will be higher than Harris's.

"Both candidates' policies will lead to inflation," said Dan Hamilton, Director of Economic Research and Forecasting Center at California Lutheran University.

Different from the forecasts in July, the Hamilton team now believes that due to Trump's tariff plan, his second term will result in a faster pace of price increases.

Hamilton stated: 'Since July, we have found that Trump is more against free trade than Harris.'

Analysts believe that tariffs imposed by former President Trump during his previous term are usually passed on to importers or consumers at higher costs or prices, harming industries that rely on imported inputs. This will ultimately lead to price increases, and inflation may resurge.

Philip Marey, a senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank, said: "If tariffs really take effect, I think people will face very serious surprises."

Brian Hughes, a senior advisor to the Trump campaign team, said: "Trump's policy focus is on promoting economic growth, reducing inflation, stimulating American manufacturing development, and protecting American workers from the impact of unfair policies of other countries."

"The significant increase in government spending in the last two administrations is the main factor driving the stock market rally."

As of last Friday's close, the S&P 500 index has risen 50% since Biden took office in January 2021.

This is slightly lower than the 53% increase achieved by the index during Trump's tenure.

Ed Mills, Managing Director and Washington Policy Analyst at Raymond James, said in an interview with financial media MarketWatch: "My overall view is that regardless of who becomes president, the stock market can perform well. I hope we can change the view that market performance is determined by who occupies the White House."

"My overall view is that regardless of who becomes president, the stock market can perform well. I hope we can change the view that market performance is determined by who occupies the White House."

He stated that the significant increase in government spending over the past two administrations is the main factor driving the stock market higher.

Since the outbreak of the new coronavirus pandemic, the federal government has approved spending approximately $8 trillion more than our regular expenditure. This has been the case during the terms of both Presidents Trump and Biden, so for me, this is the reason for the stock market increase.

Editor/ping