Focus on the Hong Kong and US stock earnings season

Topic 1040 news 30727 Subscribers

A preview of Netflix's performance! Market expects a net increase of about 7 million users in Q3, is it a good time for subscription fees to increase?

Futu News · Oct 14 15:55

富途资讯10月14日， $奈飞 (NFLX.US)$ 将于美东时间10月17日美股盘后公布业绩。机构预期奈飞Q3实现营收97.65亿美元，同比增加14.32%；每股收益5.09美元，同比增加36.44%。

今年奈飞股价整体呈现震荡向上的态势，上周五盘中股价最高触及736美元，刷新历史高点。

展望本次季度业绩，投资者将主要聚焦于奈飞的用户增长情况，以及未来的业绩指引。

用户增长仍是市场关注的重要指标

市场主流预期奈飞第三季度净增用户数约为600万-700万名，其中：

摩根大通分析师Doug Anmuth预计奈飞Q3将净增加700万名用户；
瑞银分析师John Hodulik预计奈飞Q3净增用户数为710万，高于其此前预期的580万。

由于奈飞打击密码共享，为订阅用户数量的上升带来了正面的影响。不过，市场也在关注是否有迹象可以表明这种措施带来的收入增长开始消退。

此外，奈飞将从2025年开始停止报告用户数据，转而关注财务指标。也就是说，Q3财报是倒数第二份包含订阅用户数的财报。

市场重点关注奈飞未来的业绩指引

瑞银分析师John Hodulik强调，奈飞Q4业绩展望可能会显示强劲的用户增长，尤其是受到《鱿鱼游戏第二季》等热门影片和两场NFL（美国职业橄榄球大联盟）比赛的推动。其中，《鱿鱼游戏第二季》将于12月26日开播，而首场NFL比赛将于圣诞节当天播出。

KeyBanc分析师也表示，首场的NFL比赛将成为订阅用户增长的催化剂，在该机构调查的非奈飞用户当中，近四分之一的人表示，比赛会让他们考虑付费订阅。

圣诞节比赛是奈飞和其他流媒体对体育直播的最新押注，旨在吸引新用户。此外，奈飞还将从明年开始成为TKO Group Holdings旗下美国世界摔角娱乐公司(WWE)重头节目Raw及其他节目的官方转播商。

事实上，从内容的角度来看，奈飞即将度过辉煌的2024年。《布里奇顿第三季》(Bridgerton Season 3)填补了2023年《王冠》(The Crown)结束留下的空白；《驯鹿宝贝》(Baby Reindeer)2024年在全球大获成功；新喜剧系列《天作不合的我们》(Nobody Wants This)最近在全球也表现不俗。

而2025年的内容安排也比较紧凑，除了上述提到的NFL比赛和WWE Raw以外，新一季的怪奇物语 (Stranger Things)也将在明年上映。

分析指出，由于奈飞大力投资新内容和新功能，现在可能是涨价的好时机。目前，不含广告的标准套餐对美国用户来说每个月仅需15美元多点。如果涨价至每月17美元，涨幅仅为12%。公司有可能会在电话会上宣布价格上涨，但假如并未宣布正式涨价，届时也有可能会宣扬涨价的可能性。

华尔街机构大多看好奈飞未来表现

高盛分析师Eric Sheridan维持了对奈飞的中立评级，并将目标股价从659美元上调至705美元。

派杰投资分析师Matt Farrell将奈飞的评级从中立调至增持，并将目标股价从650美元上调至800美元。

TD Cowen分析师John Blackledge维持奈飞买进评级，并将目标价从775美元上调至820美元。

富国集团分析师Steven Cahall维持奈飞买进评级，给予目标价758美元。

摩根大通分析师Doug Anmuth维持奈飞买进评级，给予目标价750美元。

历次财报日股价如何表现？

根据Market Chameleon，回测过去12个季度业绩日，奈飞在业绩发布当天下跌概率较高，约为58%，股价平均变动为±11.4%，最大跌幅为-35.1%，最大涨幅为+16.1%。

当前，奈飞的隐含变动为±7.9%，表明期权市场押注其绩后单日涨跌幅达7.9%；对比来看，奈飞前4季度的绩后平均股价变动为±9.3%，显示该股当前期权价值被低估。

从期权波动率偏度来看，市场情绪对奈飞略微看跌。

编辑/Jeffy

On October 14th, Futu News, $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ will announce its performance post-market on October 17th, USA Eastern Time. Institutions expect Netflix to achieve Q3 revenue of 9.765 billion USD, an increase of 14.32% year-on-year; earnings per share of 5.09 USD, an increase of 36.44% year-on-year.

Netflix's stock price has shown a volatile upward trend this year, reaching a high of 736 USD during trading last Friday, setting a new all-time high.

Looking ahead to this quarter's performance, investors will mainly focus on Netflix's user growth and future performance guidance.

User growth remains an important indicator of market attention.

The market's mainstream expectation is for Netflix to add approximately 6 million-7 million net users in the third quarter, including:

JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth expects Netflix to add a net 7 million users in Q3.
UBS Group analyst John Hodulik expects Netflix to add 7.1 million users in Q3, higher than his previous estimate of 5.8 million.

Netflix's crackdown on password sharing has had a positive impact on the increase in subscriber numbers. However, the market is also watching for signs that the revenue growth from this measure may be starting to fade.

In addition, starting from 2025, Netflix will stop reporting user data and shift its focus to financial indicators. This means that the Q3 financial report will be the second-to-last report to include subscriber numbers.

The market is closely watching Netflix's future performance guidance.

UBS Group analyst John Hodulik emphasizes that Netflix's Q4 performance outlook may show strong user growth, especially driven by popular shows like "Squid Game Season 2" and two NFL games. The second season of "Squid Game" will premiere on December 26th, while the first NFL game will be aired on Christmas Day.

KeyBanc analysts also stated that the first NFL game will be a catalyst for subscriber growth. Among non-Netflix users surveyed by the institution, nearly a quarter indicated that the game would make them consider a paid subscription.

Christmas games represent Netflix's and other streaming platforms' latest bet on live sports, aiming to attract new users. In addition, starting from next year, Netflix will become the official broadcaster for TKO Group Holdings' WWE flagship program Raw and other programs.

In fact, from a content perspective, Netflix is set for a splendid 2024. "Bridgerton Season 3" fills the gap left by the end of 2023's "The Crown"; "Baby Reindeer" achieved great success globally in 2024; the new comedy series "Nobody Wants This" has recently performed well worldwide.

In 2025, the schedule is also quite tight, besides the NFL games and WWE Raw mentioned above, a new season of Stranger Things will also be released next year.

Analysis points out that now might be a good time for Netflix to raise prices due to the heavy investment in new content and features. Currently, the standard package without ads costs just over $15 per month for US users. If the price is raised to $17 per month, the increase is only 12%. The company may announce a price increase during the earnings call, but if an official increase is not announced, they may still hint at the possibility of a future rise.

Most Wall Street institutions are bullish on Netflix's future performance.

Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan maintains a neutral rating on Netflix and raises the target price from $659 to $705.

Piper Sandler analyst Matt Farrell upgrades Netflix's rating from neutral to shareholding and raises the target price from $650 to $800.

TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge maintains a buy rating on Netflix and raises the target price from $775 to $820.

Ubs Group analyst Steven Cahall maintains a buy rating on Netflix with a target price of $758.

JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth maintains a buy rating on Netflix with a target price of $750.

How has the stock price performed on past earnings days?

According to Market Chameleon, backtesting the performance days of the past 12 quarters, Netflix has a higher probability of falling on the day of performance release, about 58%, with an average price change of ±11.4%, a maximum decline of -35.1%, and a maximum increase of +16.1%.

Currently, Netflix's implied move is ±7.9%, indicating that the options market is betting on a single-day price change of up to 7.9% after earnings; in comparison, Netflix's average stock price change after the previous 4 quarters was ±9.3%, indicating that the current options value is undervalued.

From the skewness of the options volatility, market sentiment towards Netflix is slightly bearish.

Editor/Jeffy

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.