Analysis believes that the current market is in a transitional stage from "expected major turnaround" to "market major turning point".
Today (October 14), the three major A-share indices fluctuated upwards. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.65%, and the ChiNext Price Index rose by 2.6%. Around 4800 stocks in the two markets rose, with a total turnover exceeding 16 billion yuan, with the largest turnover coming from East Money Information.
On the market, sectors saw a general increase, with a surge in Huawei Hongmong concept stocks hitting the limit up, and over ten stocks such as Jiangsu Hoperun Software and Soft Communication Power hitting the limit up. The AMC concept was active throughout the day, with Yunshixun technologies hitting the limit up; Diversified finance, aviation, real estate, semiconductors and other sectors were among the top gainers.
In terms of turnover, the total turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets for the whole day amounted to 1634.985 billion yuan, an increase of 62.965 billion yuan from the previous day. Specifically, the turnover in Shanghai was 701.499 billion yuan (compared to 664.333 billion yuan the previous trading day), with a volume of 0.631 billion lots (compared to 0.606 billion lots the previous trading day); the turnover in Shenzhen was 933.486 billion yuan (compared to 907.687 billion yuan the previous trading day), with a volume of 0.768 billion lots (compared to 0.768 billion lots the previous trading day). East Money Information had the highest turnover at 33.397 billion yuan, followed by Jiangsu Hoperun Software (13.028 billion yuan), Citic Securities (12.171 billion yuan), Contemporary Amperex Technology (11.672 billion yuan), and GTJA (11.174 billion yuan).
In terms of capital flow, the main net outflow of funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets today was 0.871 billion yuan, accounting for 0.05%; large block orders saw a net outflow of 8.614 billion yuan, accounting for 0.53%; small block orders saw a net inflow of 7.531 billion yuan, accounting for 0.46%.
On Saturday, Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an revealed at a State Council Information Office press conference that a series of targeted incremental policy measures will be introduced soon, involving addressing local government debt risks and stabilizing the real estate market from falling. The four main fiscal incremental policy tools include governments significantly borrowing to replace hidden debts to support local government debt risk resolution; issuing debt to supplement the capital of state-owned banks to enhance their lending capacity; using special bonds and tax policies to stabilize the real estate market; increasing support for key groups to boost consumption.
Chief Economist Ming Ming of CITIC Securities pointed out that the future economy and capital markets are expected to gradually stabilize and rise under the push of specific policy implementation and optimistic market expectations. This reflects the market's expectations for policy stimulus, believing that these measures will inject new momentum into economic recovery.
CITIC Securities' analysis of the A-share market believes that the current market is in a transitional phase from 'expectation reversal' to 'major turning point in the market trend.' The market previously experienced a pulse-like rally, but as the struggle between bulls and bears intensifies, the pace of entry of off-market incremental funds has slowed. Nevertheless, the potential size of funds entering the market remains large, providing support for the market's future trends.
citic sec further pointed out that the driving force of future market trends may gradually shift from short-term fund sentiment driving to fundamental validation. As the fundamentals gradually clarify, the market characteristics will also transition from previous impulse-like fluctuations to a more stable gradual rise. Overall, the future trend of the A-share market is expected to present a more healthy and stable upward trend under the joint action of funds and fundamentals.
china securities co.,ltd. based on its bull market 'three stages' analysis believes that the market has transitioned from the first stage of a bull market 'blitzkrieg' into the second stage of a 'tug-of-war.' In the short term, the market may experience consolidation, but the medium term is still a preparation period for the layout of the third stage. Looking at the medium term, the recovery of domestic demand during the upturn cycle trade is set to become an important investment theme. In the near term, focus can be on internet, new energy autos, banks, insurance, construction, electronics, machinery, and nonferrous metals industries, with short-term themes including debt resolution (such as eco-friendly, asset management companies, etc.).
looking ahead, gtja believes that the stock market is expected to rebound and recover after the adjustment. The main reasons include: 1) the change in the decision-making level towards the economic situation and capital markets attitude has clarified the market's bottom line; 2) the loosening of financial policies on september 24 reduced the risk-free interest rate, potentially providing continuous market entry for incremental funds; 3) the expansionary fiscal policy not only addresses debt deflation but also brings expectations for stable future economy and inflation recovery to the market. From a pricing perspective, the decline in nominal interest rates is favorable for the mid-term outlook of the stock market along with the expected rise in asset prices.