该行预计，腾讯第三季及第四季线上游戏收入同比升15%及27%，对比第二季的同比升9%，受惠于低基数、既有游戏的表现坚韧及新游戏收入贡献。摩通预计腾讯第三季经调整每股盈利5.87元人民币胜预期，但下调对公司今明两年毛利率预测0.8%及1.3个百分点，反映《地下城与勇士》低毛利收入贡献。The bank believes that Tencent's earnings are more driven by non-cyclical operations, but it believes that the company's non-cyclical operations will continue to deliver positive alpha, especially in the gaming business.
The Zhongtong Finance APP learned that JPMorgan stated in a report that it raised Tencent's (00700) adjusted earnings per share forecast for the next two years by 3% and 6%, and raised the target price from HK$480 to HK$520, maintaining a "shareholding" rating.
The report stated that Tencent's stock price has lagged behind other e-commerce stocks in the recent market rally, based on investors increasing exposure to potential macroeconomic recovery themes. The bank believes that Tencent's earnings are more driven by non-cyclical operations, but it believes that the company's non-cyclical operations will continue to deliver positive alpha, especially in the gaming business. Tencent's cyclical operations are expected to benefit from a consumer recovery in the coming quarters, similar to e-commerce platforms.
The bank expects Tencent's online game revenue to increase by 15% and 27% year-on-year in the third and fourth quarters, compared to a 9% increase year-on-year in the second quarter, benefiting from a low base, resilient performance of existing games, and contributions from new game revenue. JPMorgan expects Tencent's third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 5.87 RMB to exceed expectations, but reduces the forecast for the company's gross margin by 0.8% and 1.3 percentage points for the next two years, reflecting low-margin revenue contributions from "Dungeon and Warrior".
