Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
Author: Xu Wenqiang.

Morgan Stanley's fund article stated that the current factors affecting the A-share market are still mainly domestic, with the impact of external factors temporarily weakening; at the same time, long-term factors have a greater influence than short-term factors. The Ministry of Finance held a press conference on Saturday, clearly stating that the Ministry of Finance will increase the intensity of counter-cyclical adjustments, including issuing 400 billion local government bonds, significantly increasing the debt limit to replace the hidden debts of local governments, using special bonds for real estate acquisitions, increasing student subsidies, issuing special national bonds to supplement the core Tier 1 capital of banks, and also explicitly stating that the central government still has significant borrowing space and deficit enhancement space. It can be said that the attitude of the Ministry of Finance is extremely positive, and subsequent fiscal policies will be implemented successively, which is expected to continue to boost investor confidence and the valuation repair trend of A-shares is still worth looking forward to.

On the domestic front, the short-term factors are the economic data for September and the third-quarter GDP that will be disclosed soon, while the long-term factors are the future economic expectations brought by the measures to stabilize growth. Fiscal efforts are the macroeconomic policies that investors are most concerned about.

On the overseas front, recent U.S. inflation, employment data, etc., will no longer significantly influence the market direction, as the Fed's rate-cut cycle has already begun. It can be assumed that the Fed's policy is relatively positive for risk assets until there is significant secondary inflationary pressure hindering the Fed from making continuous rate cuts decisions.

Morgan Stanley Fund pointed out that overall, the recent market has shown a trend of rising and then falling back. At the beginning of the week, the market sentiment reached an exuberant state, with trading volume reaching a historically high level, and the market's decline in the second half of the week is considered a normal technical correction. During this period, some events, such as the positive statements made at the National Development and Reform Commission press conference, are believed to only explain existing policies, with additions below expectations. Banks reiterated their strict prohibition of crediting funds illegally entering the stock market, and these events are considered surface influences on the market, which may only have a certain impact on the amplitude of market fluctuations.

Editor/Jeffy