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Shareholders in New Fortress Energy (NASDAQ:NFE) Have Lost 70%, as Stock Drops 7.2% This Past Week

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 13 22:29

If you are building a properly diversified stock portfolio, the chances are some of your picks will perform badly. But the long term shareholders of New Fortress Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:NFE) have had an unfortunate run in the last three years. Sadly for them, the share price is down 73% in that time. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 72% in the last year. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 56% in the last 90 days.

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for New Fortress Energy isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, New Fortress Energy moved from a loss to profitability. We would usually expect to see the share price rise as a result. So it's worth looking at other metrics to try to understand the share price move.

Given the healthiness of the dividend payments, we doubt that they've concerned the market. It's good to see that New Fortress Energy has increased its revenue over the last three years. But it's not clear to us why the share price is down. It might be worth diving deeper into the fundamentals, lest an opportunity goes begging.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

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NasdaqGS:NFE Earnings and Revenue Growth October 13th 2024

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on New Fortress Energy

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for New Fortress Energy the TSR over the last 3 years was -70%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 36% in the last year, New Fortress Energy shareholders lost 72% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 7% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand New Fortress Energy better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 6 warning signs for New Fortress Energy you should be aware of, and 2 of them shouldn't be ignored.

New Fortress Energy is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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