Chairman Wu Qing of the China Securities Regulatory Commission will speak at the Financial Street Forum; John Lee Ka-chiu will present the 'Government Work Report 2024'; China's GDP, 'terrifying data' from the United States are coming; ASML Holding, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and others will announce their performance.

This week's important schedule overview

• The 2024 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting will open on Friday, October 18th, with Chairman Wu Qing of the China Securities Regulatory Commission attending and speaking at the forum.

The 2024 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting will be held from October 18th to 20th in the Financial Street of Beijing. This year's theme is 'Trust and Confidence - Jointly Promoting Financial Open Cooperation and Sharing Stable Economic Development.'

Reports point out that past annual meetings of the Financial Street Forum have been an important window for deciphering financial policy signals. During the 2024 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting, Li Yunze, Director of the Financial Regulatory Bureau, Chairman Wu Qing of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, several leaders from the People's Bank of China, and relevant department heads will attend the forum and speak.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission will host the main forum on the afternoon of October 19th, with the theme 'Promoting Capital Market High-Quality Development through Comprehensive Deepening of Capital Market Reforms.' This main forum includes two topics: first, 'Better leveraging the functions of the capital market to assist the development of new quality productivity.' Second, 'Adhering to investor-centric principles and vigorously improving investor services.'

The People's Bank of China will host two events: first, the People's Bank of China Main Forum of the 2024 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting, which will be held in the afternoon of October 18th under the theme 'Improving the Modern Central Bank System to Enhance Macroeconomic Governance'; second, the Global Fintech Congress Chengfang Fintech Forum, which will be held from October 18th to 20th under the theme 'Fintech Empowering Five Major Articles.'

• Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, John Lee Ka-chiu, will deliver the 'Government Work Report 2024' on Wednesday morning at 11:00.

John Lee Ka-chiu, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, will deliver the 2024 Policy Address at 11:00 am on October 16, attracting high attention from all sectors of society. The market expects that the upcoming Policy Address may introduce a series of new measures to revitalize the Hong Kong economy.

Hong Kong's 'Ming Pao' revealed that this year's 'Policy Address' will focus on economic development. In July, the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China decided to consolidate and enhance Hong Kong's status as an international financial, shipping, and trading center, supporting Hong Kong in building an international high-end talent gathering place. It is revealed that the 'Policy Address' will respond to the Central Committee's decision, with a focus on how to consolidate and enhance the 'three centers'.

Citing sources, the South China Morning Post reported that John Lee Ka-chiu will announce multiple measures next week in the 2024 Policy Address to consolidate Hong Kong's status as a global financial center. It is reported that John Lee Ka-chiu will outline measures to achieve economic diversification in Hong Kong by developing emerging industries such as life sciences, while promoting the development of existing industries such as the fashion trade.

• The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy.

On Friday, October 18 at 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy, and will also release data including China's GDP for the third quarter, industrial added value for September, fixed asset investment, and total retail sales of consumer goods for September.

Previously released data showed that the GDP for the first half of the year was 61,683.6 billion yuan, calculated at constant prices, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%. Looking at a quarterly breakdown, GDP growth was 5.3% in the first quarter and 4.7% in the second quarter. Quarter-on-quarter, GDP grew by 0.7% in the second quarter.

Minsheng Macro Analysis points out that the second quarter economy still exhibits three important features: weaker than Q1 sequentially, nominal weaker than real, and domestic demand weaker than external demand.

Minsheng Macro believes that in order to ensure that the annual economic growth rate exceeds 5%, the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate in the second half of the year should not be less than 1.4%. Assuming the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rates for the third and fourth quarters are both 1.4%, the year-on-year growth rates will be 4.9% and 5.0% respectively, achieving an annual economic growth rate of exactly 5.0%. Considering that the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate was only 0.7% in the second quarter, there may be room for policy stimulus in the second half of the year to boost economic growth, especially domestic demand.

• On Thursday, the USA released retail sales data for September.

The data released last month showed that retail sales in the USA unexpectedly rose in August, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, better than the expected decline of 0.2%. The July data was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 1.1%, indicating that US consumer demand may still be strong, benefiting the US economy.But after the bursting of the internet bubble and the Fed's rate cut in 2001, the ROI dropped by more than 10%.Adding further evidence.

• Several Federal Reserve officials will deliver speeches.

Comments from Federal Reserve officials Williams, Quarles, and Barkin this week suggested that they believe September's CPI is inflation data that can be ignored. However, Bostic stated in an interview that he will consider not lowering rates at one of the two remaining meetings this year. However, the market still seems quite confident that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting, as per usual, but not as aggressively as previously imagined. Keep an eye on the views of Bullard, Quarles, and others next week. Specific times are as follows:

On Tuesday at 03:00, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will speak on economic outlook.

On Tuesday at 23:30, FOMC Voter for 2024 and President of the San Francisco Fed, Daly, will speak at an event hosted by NYU Stern School of Business and participate in a dialogue session.

On Wednesday at 01:05, Federal Reserve Governor Quarles will deliver a speech.

On Thursday at 23:00, FOMC Voter for 2025 and President of the Chicago Fed, Guskby, will deliver welcoming remarks at an annual conference.

On Friday at 22:00, Kashkari, a 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Minneapolis Fed, delivered a speech.

• The European Central Bank will announce the interest rate decision.

On Thursday at 20:15, the European Central Bank announced the interest rate decision.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank suggest that the market widely expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates next Thursday, marking the first consecutive rate cut of the current cycle, signaling a faster easing cycle. However, they also note the high level of macroeconomic uncertainty which means the ECB is unlikely to change its data-dependent, step-by-step policy-making approach. They predict a 25 basis point rate cut next week, followed by further cuts until the rate reaches 2.25% in April.

According to a Bloomberg survey, the European Central Bank will accelerate rate cuts over the coming months to boost the economy - aiming to bring borrowing costs to a level that no longer restricts demand by the end of 2025.

• Star stocks such as Taiwan Semiconductor, Netflix, ASML Holding, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley will announce their performance next week.

On Wednesday (October 16), lithography giant ASML Holding announced its Q3 financial report.

Previously, lithography leader ASML achieved a net sales of 6.2 billion euros in the second quarter, an 18.0% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 9.6% decrease year-on-year; net income reached 1.6 billion euros, increasing by 28.92% quarter-on-quarter and decreasing by 18.7% year-on-year; with a gross margin of 51.5%, which remained relatively stable year-on-year.

In terms of profit guidance, the company expects Q3 revenue to be 6.7-7.3 billion euros (market expectations 7.455 billion euros) and gross margin to be 50-51% (market expectations 51.12%). Driven by AI, storage, and other industry chains, although the revenue is expected to rebound month-on-month, it is still lower than the market expectations.

On Thursday (October 17), chip giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) released its Q3 financial report.

TSMC previously announced that its September revenue was 251.87 billion Taiwan dollars, exceeding expectations with a year-on-year growth of 39.6% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4%. So far this year, TSMC's total revenue amounts to 2025.85 billion Taiwan dollars, a 31.9% increase from the same period last year.

According to Reuters, TSMC's third-quarter revenue was 759.69 billion new Taiwan dollars (23.62 billion US dollars), higher than market analysts' expectations of 750.36 billion new Taiwan dollars (23.33 billion US dollars), indicating a 36.5% year-on-year growth in third-quarter sales, exceeding TSMC's own forecast in July.

• Lenovo will hold the 'Tech World 2024' event on Tuesday.

Lenovo will host the 'Tech World 2024' event on Tuesday. In addition to the organizers, Lenovo has invited Nadella, Huang Renxun, Su Zifeng, Zuckerberg, and the heads of Intel and Qualcomm to attend.

• November 11 shopping festival-related will start next Monday.

On October 12, Tmall announced that the Tmall Double 11 in 2024 will start presale at 8 pm on October 14. JD.com also announced earlier that this year's JD 11.11 will start spot sales at 8 pm on October 14.

• The Paris Motor Show will open next Monday.

The Paris Motor Show will open next Monday and last for a whole week. At that time, French consumers will see BYD's EY6 for the first time, while Tesla will also launch the Cybertruck in the European market.

This week's key performance calendar

October 14th, Monday

Keywords: China's trade balance, Nobel Prize in Economics announcement, start of November 11 shopping festival-related, opening of the Paris Motor Show, Tokyo Stock Exchange closed

On Monday, China will disclose the trade balance for September in terms of economic data.

In terms of financial events, the Nobel Prize in Economics will be announced. In addition, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Tmall and $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ November 11 shopping festival-related will start. In addition, the Paris Motor Show will open and last for a whole week.

In addition, due to a sports holiday, the Japanese stock market will be closed.

Tuesday, October 15

Keywords: China's MLF bid rate and operation scale, Goldman Sachs / Citigroup / Bank of America / Johnson & Johnson performance, Lenovo's "Tech World 2024" event

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, China will announce the bid rate and operation scale of MLF.

In terms of financial events, $LENOVO GROUP (00992.HK)$ Will hold the "Technology World 2024" event.

In terms of performance, $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Citigroup (C.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Bank of America (BAC.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$ Both will announce their earnings before the US stock market opens.

Wednesday, October 16

Keywords: John Lee Ka-chiu will release the 2024 "Policy Address", Bank of Japan to hold a "Market Operation Meeting", ASML Holding / Morgan Stanley earnings

On Wednesday, in terms of financial events, John Lee Ka-chiu will release the 2024 "Policy Address". In addition, the Bank of Japan will hold a "Market Operation Meeting".

In terms of performance, $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$ Both will announce their earnings before the US stock market opens.

Thursday, October 17th

Keywords: European Central Bank interest rate decision, US retail sales monthly rate, US initial jobless claims, Taiwan Semiconductor/Netflix earnings

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, the US will separately announce the monthly retail sales rate and the initial jobless claims for the week.

In terms of financial events, the European Central Bank will announce the interest rate decision.

In terms of performance, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ Will announce earnings in pre-market trading on US stocks, while $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ will announce earnings in post-market trading on US stocks.

Friday, October 18

Keywords: China's third-quarter GDP, the State Council Information Office holds a press conference on the operation of the national economy, the opening of the 2024 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting, Japan's September core CPI, Zijin Mining Group/American Express earnings

On Friday, in terms of economic data, China will release data on the third-quarter GDP, total retail sales of consumer goods in September, and the value added of industrial enterprises above a designated size in September. In addition, Japan will release the September core CPI.

In terms of financial events, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy. In addition, the 2024 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting will open.

In terms of performance, $American Express (AXP.US)$ Will release earnings before the US stock market opens. In addition, $ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$ will also announce earnings on the same day.

Wishing Mooers a successful week of investment!

Editor/Jeffy