Central banks start cutting interest rates

Institutions: It is still highly probable that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in November.

swhy macro · Oct 13 10:38

来源：申万宏源宏观
作者：赵伟、陈达飞等

8、9月美国经济和CPI数据证伪了前期的衰退交易和超额的降息交易，后续美联储降息节奏是否有变？我们认为，年内两次25bp仍是基准假设，但需关注明年降息不达预期的可能性。

1、9月美国CPI通胀超预期，成色如何？

9月美国CPI超市场预期强劲，核心通胀除房租外多有升温。9月美国CPI同比2.4%，环比0.2%，市场预期同比为2.3%。从核心通胀结构来看，车辆通胀主要反映前几月二手车价格回升，核心非耐用品通胀反映今年以来进口价格上升，核心非房租服务通胀对应近几月居民薪资增速反复。

四季度美国通胀压力可能再起。主要因素可能是房租通胀（房价）、核心非耐用品（进口价格传导）。若美国就业强势持续，则核心非房租服务通胀也可能成为通胀韧性的来源。展望明年，通胀粘性仍是主基调，在降息的累计影响下，存在结构性地二次通胀压力。

2、三季度美国经济韧性来源于何处？

各类数据指向美国三季度经济韧性较强。如国庆节期间公布的美国9月就业数据、9月ISM服务业PMI。从更为高频的数据来看，花旗美国经济意外指数自7月以来持续回升。根据最新亚特兰大联储实时预测，三季度美国GDP季调环比折年增速可能达3.2%，高于二季度增速。

在美国二季度GDP公布之后，市场对于美国下半年的经济增速预测不到2%，为何美国经济在三季度一步步展现出更强韧性呢？我们认为有两方面因素可能是潜在支撑：财政发力、金融状况放松，美国实体较低的杠杆率也使得三季度飓风冲击对经济影响较小。

3、展望：美联储11月降息仍然是基准假设

美联储11月降息仍然是大概率事件。美国9月CPI数据并未对降息预期形成较大冲击，本周失业金数据高于市场预期（飓风）可能是一个因素。由于美联储当前对于就业的关注远高于通胀，11月降息25BP仍是基准假设，但需关注明年降息不达预期的可能性（当前交易100bp+）。

有两方面因素可能成为四季度经济的“逆风”，一方面近期美债利率的回升，可能会制约金融条件的放松。另一方面，在新财年+大选季+明年1月1日债务上限临近影响下，四季度美国财政能否继续发力需要观察。未来美债利率走势需观察经济以及大选结果，而美元指数则需关注日央行加息进程（石破茂表态偏鸽）以及欧央行降息进程（下周欧央行举行货币政策例会）。

4、风险提示

地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储再次转“鹰”。

编辑/Jeffy

Source: SWHY Macro. Author: Wang Maoyu, Zhao Wei. The US non-farm data is significantly weaker than expected, and the unemployment rate has continued to rise to 4.3%, triggering the recession signal of the 'Sahm rule' for the first time, causing a significant market shock. This report believes that the signal noise in August is large and there is a possibility of discontinuity. The key lies in whether there are exogenous shocks that may occur later.
Authors: Zhao Wei, Chen Dafei, etc.

The US economic and CPI data for August and September have debunked the previous recession trade and excessive rate cut trades. Will there be any changes in the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the future? We believe that two 25 basis point cuts within the year are still the baseline assumption, but we need to pay attention to the possibility that rate cuts next year may not meet expectations.

1. In September, the US CPI inflation exceeded expectations, how is the quality?

US CPI in September performed strongly above market expectations, with core inflation heating up apart from rental. The year-on-year US CPI for September was 2.4%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, while market expectations were at 2.3% year-on-year. Looking at the structure of core inflation, vehicle inflation mainly reflects the rebound in used car prices in previous months, core non-durable goods inflation reflects the rise in import prices since the beginning of the year, and core non-rental services inflation corresponds to the fluctuating growth rate of residents' wages in recent months.

In the fourth quarter, inflationary pressures in the US may rise again. The main factors may be rent inflation (housing prices) and core non-durable goods (import price transmission). If the strong US employment continues, core non-rental service inflation may also become a source of inflation resilience. Looking ahead to next year, inflation stickiness remains the main theme, and under the cumulative impact of interest rate cuts, there may be structural secondary inflationary pressures.

2. Where does the resilience of the US economy in the third quarter come from?

Various data points to a stronger resilience of the USA economy in the third quarter. Examples include the US September employment data released during the National Day holiday, and the September ISM Services PMI. From more frequent data, the Citibank US Economic Surprise Index has been rising continuously since July. According to the latest real-time forecast from the Atlanta Fed, the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rate of the US GDP in the third quarter may reach 3.2%, higher than the second quarter's growth rate.

After the announcement of the second-quarter GDP in the USA, the market forecasts economic growth of less than 2% for the second half of the year. Why is the US economy gradually showing more resilience in the third quarter? We believe that there may be two potential supporting factors: fiscal stimulus and relaxed financial conditions. The relatively low leverage of the US entities also mitigates the impact of hurricane in the third quarter on the economy.

Outlook: The probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in November is still the baseline assumption.

A November interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is still a high-probability event. The September CPI data in the USA did not have a significant impact on the rate cut expectations. High initial jobless claims data this week (due to hurricanes) may be a factor. As the Federal Reserve's current focus on employment is far higher than inflation, a 25 basis points rate cut in November is still the baseline assumption, but attention should be paid to the possibility of rate cuts falling short of expectations next year (current trading 100bp+).

There are two potential headwinds for the economy in the fourth quarter. On one hand, the recent rise in US bond yields may constrain the relaxation of financial conditions. On the other hand, with the impact of the new fiscal year, election season, and the approaching debt ceiling on January 1st next year, it is necessary to observe whether the US fiscal policy can continue to be supportive in the fourth quarter. The future trend of US bond yields needs to be observed along with the economic and election results, while the US dollar index needs to pay attention to the Japanese central bank's interest rate hike process (Shinzo Abe leaning dovish) and the European Central Bank's interest rate reduction process (the ECB holds its monetary policy meeting next week).

Risk Warning: Escalation of geopolitical conflicts; US economic slowdown exceeding expectations; Federal Reserve shifting back to 'hawkish' stance.

Editor/Jeffy

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