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Revenues Not Telling The Story For C3.ai, Inc. (NYSE:AI) After Shares Rise 27%

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 12 20:44

C3.ai, Inc. (NYSE:AI) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 27% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Looking further back, the 10% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

Since its price has surged higher, C3.ai may be sending strong sell signals at present with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 10.6x, when you consider almost half of the companies in the Software industry in the United States have P/S ratios under 4.8x and even P/S lower than 1.9x aren't out of the ordinary. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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NYSE:AI Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry October 12th 2024

How Has C3.ai Performed Recently?

With revenue growth that's superior to most other companies of late, C3.ai has been doing relatively well. It seems the market expects this form will continue into the future, hence the elevated P/S ratio. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on C3.ai.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the industry for P/S ratios like C3.ai's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 19% last year. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 67% overall rise in revenue, aided by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 24% during the coming year according to the analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be similar to the 25% growth forecast for the broader industry.

With this information, we find it interesting that C3.ai is trading at a high P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On C3.ai's P/S

C3.ai's P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Analysts are forecasting C3.ai's revenues to only grow on par with the rest of the industry, which has lead to the high P/S ratio being unexpected. The fact that the revenue figures aren't setting the world alight has us doubtful that the company's elevated P/S can be sustainable for the long term. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

You always need to take note of risks, for example - C3.ai has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of C3.ai's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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