海外：重视出口机遇，24H1 公司海外收入超过45%。根据公告，24H1 公司海外市场实现收入77.12 亿元，同比+18.82%，海外市场收入占比达48.02%（同比+4.85pcts）；从核心产品来看，24H1 公司挖机装载机销量同比增速超过200%，宽体车海外销量增速为55.7%；多个品类放量助力公司拓展海外市场，打开收入天花板。Brief performance review
On October 12, the company released its results forecast for the third quarter of '24. 24Q1-Q3 expects to achieve net profit of 1.239-1.405 billion yuan, or +50-70% year over year; net profit of 1.128-1.294 billion yuan after deduction, +81%-107% year-on-year; of these, the net profit realized in single Q3 was 0.319-0.361 billion yuan, +50%-70%. Single Q3 achieved net profit of 0.288-0.33 Billions of yuan, +182-224% YoY, exceeded our expectations.
Management analysis
Overseas: Focus on export opportunities. 24H1's overseas revenue exceeds 45%. According to the announcement, 24H1 achieved revenue of 7.712 billion yuan in overseas markets, +18.82% year-on-year, accounting for 48.02% of overseas market revenue (+4.85pcts year over year); in terms of core products, 24H1's excavator loader sales grew by more than 200% year on year, and overseas sales of wide-body vehicles grew 55.7%; multiple categories helped the company expand overseas markets and open up revenue ceilings.
The loader and excavator sectors in the domestic market took the lead in recovering, and the company fully benefited from the upward cycle of domestic earthmoving machinery. Judging from the company's revenue structure, 24H1's earthmoving machinery sector accounted for 61.88% of revenue, of which the main products in this sector were excavators, loaders, bulldozers, etc.; according to data from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 24Q2-Q3 domestic excavator sales reached 26961 and 20538 units, respectively, +21% and 20%; 24Q2-Q3 domestic loaders were 15777 and 12494 units, +12%, 9%. According to the announcement, the recovery of domestic loaders and excavators drove the company's earthwork sector to grow; according to the announcement, 24H1's earthmoving machinery achieved revenue of 9.937 billion yuan, +15.91% year-on-year. With the start of a new domestic renewal cycle, the company's core business is expected to fully benefit from the market cycle.
The scale effect was evident, which led to a significant increase in 24H1's profitability. According to the announcement, the gross margins of 24H1's domestic and overseas markets were 29.09% and 18.15%, respectively, +1.12 and 3.88pcts. The increase in profit margins in the Chinese domestic market was significant, mainly due to the scale effect achieved after the recovery of the company's civil engineering machinery. It is optimistic that the company's net interest rate will continue to increase in the next few years. The company's net interest rate is expected to be 5.5%, 6.7%, and 7.6% in 24-26.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We adjusted the profit forecast according to the announcement. The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is 29.875/32.95/36.853 billion yuan, and net profit to mother is 1.633/2.208/2.797 billion yuan, corresponding PE is 15/11/9X, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Demand for downstream real estate and infrastructure falls short of expectations, increased competition in overseas markets, risk of rising raw material prices, and risk of exchange rate fluctuations.
