在周五举办的Robotaxi Day上，特斯拉无人驾驶出租车（Robotaxi）原型车Cybercab、无人驾驶巴士Robovan正式亮相，据马斯克介绍，Cybercab可能会在“2027年之前”上市时出售给出租车调度公司。Self-driving taxis lack key details, humanoid robots rely on manual control, the eagerly anticipated budget models are absent again, and the performance improvement information of the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system is missing, leaving Wall Street's expectations largely unmet.
Self-driving taxis lack key details, humanoid robots rely on manual control, the highly anticipated budget vehicle model is once again absent... Musk's so-called historic event ultimately disappointed Wall Street.
Tesla $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Overnight, US stocks plummeted, dropping more than 10% at the open, ultimately closing down 8.78% at $217.8.
At the Robotaxi Day held on Friday, Tesla's self-driving taxi (Robotaxi) prototypes Cybercab and self-driving bus Robovan officially debuted. According to Musk, Cybercab may be sold to taxi dispatch companies by '2027'.
Musk also stated his expectation that Tesla cars will achieve autonomous driving in Texas and California next year. The humanoid robot Optimus will be priced for mass production at $0.02 million-0.03 million, and Cybercab will be priced below $0.03 million.
"Is that simple?" Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas asked, questioning in his latest report:
We have tested Cybercab and the latest robot Optimus on closed road sections. Besides this, we had hoped to receive the latest information on Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, such as improvements in system performance, Tesla's strategic plan for launching supervised and unsupervised ride-sharing services, including economic considerations and overall market analysis. We also wanted to hear about Tesla's collaboration with the AI company xAI, or discussions regarding the "Grand Blueprint Chapter Four" about the company's future development plans.
However, none of these expectations were met, and Jonas felt disappointed with the information and details provided in this event.
No surprises, all disappointment.
Jonas also pointed out that Optimus performed some simple tasks, such as pouring beer and dancing, but these models were not fully autonomous, requiring close human supervision and remote operation.
Our understanding is that these robots are not fully autonomous but rely on remote operation (human intervention), so this more demonstrates their freedom and flexibility.
Overall, we did not find anything new/novel from Optimus, clearly showing significant progress including minor details unknown to the market before.
Apart from Morgan Stanley, analysts from UBS Group, JPMorgan, and other major banks have also expressed dissatisfaction with this conference.
UBS Group analyst Alejandro Nuno reviewed his experience riding the Cybercab, stating that the experience was fine, but did not receive much useful information:
The car is small, but spacious for two people. However, the car only made a round on the stage. Not too complex, so there isn't much to interpret.
In fact, when our itinerary reaches the designated stop, it cannot find a parking space (none available), so it does not wait for a parking space, but continues to the next stop along the route.
Nuno believes that the Robotaxi unveiling falls far short of meeting Wall Street's expectations.
Meanwhile, we believe that people have high expectations for Tesla to unveil the Model 2.5, but it has not been shown (meeting our expectations). This is important because we think that compared to new products showcased at events, the new model is more likely to drive performance expectations for 2025/2026.
After attending the unveiling, JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman cryptically remarked that it is more enjoyable to ride in a Cybercab and savor the experience than to anticipate the surprises it brings when arriving at the destination. His words imply that the autonomous driving function of the Cybercab may not have met expectations.
He pointed out that despite Tesla's stock price rising by 68% since April 22, expectations for Tesla's full-year 2024 car sales, EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes), and free cash flow have significantly declined. Forecasts for the coming years are also not optimistic, with the share price increase seeming more based on investors' expectations for Robotaxi Day rather than fundamental improvements in the company.
Brinkman believes that investors' expectations for Tesla may be too high, a point evident from the way the event was announced:
The event was not announced through an official press release, Tesla's official tweet, or Musk's tweet, but rather was mentioned by Musk in response to someone else's tweet on the X platform. This informal and somewhat casual approach.
In his response, Musk seems to be refuting a Reuters report claiming that Tesla's internal emails indicated the planned $25,000 "Model 2" project had been canceled or indefinitely postponed. Musk stated that the Model 2 project has not been canceled but repositioned as a robotaxi and will be unveiled at Tesla's Robotaxi Day.
Elon Musk's response tweet successfully reversed the downward trend of Tesla's stock price on April 8th due to Reuters' report. However, investors may have placed too much emphasis on this tweet without realizing that it does not equate to an official company statement.
In addition, Tesla has postponed the Robotaxi Day from August 8th to October 10th due to the need for design changes. This may indicate that the Tesla team is working hard to meet a challenging deadline that may not be as easy to achieve as they had expected.
Tom Narayan, a New York financial markets analyst at RBC Capital Markets, pointed out that investors believe this event lacks real financial figures and timelines (especially with the absence of the highly anticipated budget car model again), focusing more on branding and marketing Tesla's vision, which is disappointing.
Despite this, Narayan remains bullish on Tesla's long-term development and believes that humanoid robots may become an important growth driver for Tesla in the future.
As Tesla's stock price falls, Uber hits an all-time high with an innovative 'lying down and winning' strategy.
Market not satisfied with the Robotaxi answers provided by Musk, making the market more bullish. $Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$ And online car-hailing companies $Lyft Inc (LYFT.US)$.
On Friday, Uber rose nearly 11% to a record high, while Lyft surged over 11.3% at one point.
Citigroup analyst Ronald Josey said:
"Tesla's activities have given us a clearer understanding of the company's plans and timing for self-driving rental cars, which makes us more bullish on Uber's stocks. There are not many specific details about the Cybercab's sales and ride-hailing app, which leads us to believe that Tesla may still collaborate with Uber for sales in the future."
Jefferies analyst John Colantuoni believes:
"This event is good news for Uber. He described Tesla's taxis as 'not competitive' and pointed out that the company has provided no verifiable evidence of its progress in autonomous driving capabilities, nor disclosed how many self-driving taxis it plans to produce."
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