重点项目顺利推进，西非市场开展布局。公司以Tietto Minerals Limited（Tietto）收购为引领的重点项目按计划有序推进。目前已完成对Tietto100%股权及科马洪金矿的控股权收购，并顺利完成现场接管，扩大公司在西非矿业市场的整体布局。Event: The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. 2024Q1-Q3 achieved operating income of 7.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.7%, and realized net profit of 0.88 billion yuan, an increase of 141.1% year-on-year, after deducting non-attributable net profit of 0.939 billion yuan, an increase of 54.46% over the previous year. Looking at a single quarter, 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 2.83 billion yuan, up 3.27% year on year, down 8.13% month on month; realized net profit of 0.328 billion yuan, up 191.55% year on year, down 1.08% month on month, after deducting net profit of 0.386 billion yuan without return to mother, up 65.96% year on year and 12.08% month on month. The performance was basically in line with our expectations.
Analysis: High gold prices are the core reason for the company's excellent performance. Price: 2024Q1-Q3COMEX gold average price was 2290 USD/oz, +18.58% YoY; Q3 COMEX gold averaged 2473 USD/oz in a single quarter, +28.39% YoY, +5.76% YoY. Expenses: There was a slight decrease in the company's fee level. According to the original published statement, R&D/management/finance expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were 0.198/0.769/0.338 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 2.44%/9.51%/4.18% of revenue, a year-on-year decrease of 0.91/1.21/0.85pct. Profit: Benefiting from the rise in gold prices, the company achieved a net interest rate of 15.71% in Q1-Q3, +7.03pct year on year. Q3 achieved a net interest rate of 17.75% in a single quarter, higher than the annual average, and further enhanced profitability. Other: The company's income from fair value changes in the first three quarters was 9.15 million yuan, up 104.22% year on year, and investment income was 26.14 million yuan, up 824.64% year on year. Non-operating expenses were 85.37 million yuan, up 90.27% year over year.
Investment in exploration continues, and resource reserves are constantly being enriched. Based on continuous exploration of existing mines and joint promotion of epitaxial mergers and acquisitions, the company invested 0.123 billion yuan in geological exploration in 2023, and discovered an additional 33.83 tons of metal. By the end of 2023, the company had 1,185 tons of gold resources and 472 tons of recoverable reserves. In 2024, H1 completed geological exploration and invested RMB 0.042 billion, adding 14.31 tons of gold metals.
Key projects are progressing smoothly, and the West African market is being laid out. The company's key projects, led by the acquisition of Tietto Minerals Limited (Tietto), are progressing in an orderly manner as planned. At present, it has completed the acquisition of 100% of Tietto's shares and a controlling interest in the Comahon gold mine, and successfully completed on-site takeover to expand the company's overall layout in the West African mining market.
Offshore gold mines are about to be put into operation, and incremental contributions can be expected in the future. The company holds 70% of the shares in the offshore gold mine. The offshore gold mine has now fully entered the fast track of construction. The project is progressing smoothly. It is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2025. After completion, the estimated harvesting scale is 0.012 million tons/day, which can contribute 15-20 tons of gold per year after production. According to research reports, the total cost of Kejin is only 120 yuan/gram. The mine has excellent profitability. As the largest single gold mine in Asia, future development can be expected.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company's 2024-2026 net profit to be 1.293/1.924/2.868 billion yuan, respectively, and PE corresponding to the October 10 stock price is 32/21/14 times, respectively. Considering that the offshore gold mine project has excellent profitability and is about to be put into operation in 2025, the high combined gold price will drive a year-on-year increase in profitability and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic risk, gold price fluctuation risk, production safety risk, risk of production capacity falling short of expectations, etc.
