■ As reported in advance, the House of Representatives will be dissolved on the 9th.

This week's Nikkei Average rose by 970.18 yen on a weekly basis (+2.51%) to 39,605.80 yen, driven by the yen's weakness and the rise in U.S. stocks following the September employment statistics announcement. The Nikkei Average recovered the 39,000 yen level from the beginning of the week as Prime Minister Shidara dissolved the House of Representatives on October 9th, with the previously announced schedule (notification on the 15th, voting on the 27th) proceeding with the House of Representatives election. Although there were no significant selectivity, the market approached the intraday high of 39,829.56 yen on September 27th through high market trading. In the Chinese market after the National Day, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index fluctuated, but it did not lead to a risk-off situation, and although the intraday high was not renewed, the market showed a solid trend with 3 consecutive gains towards the weekend. However, the Special Clearing Index (SQ) value of the Options Mini Nikkei Average Futures calculated on the 11th was 39,701.93 yen (preliminary value) and remained above the "phantom SQ".

In the first week of October, according to the buying and selling trends by investment entity, foreign investors bought physical securities exceeding 420.2 billion yen, sold TOPIX futures by 403.9 billion yen, and sold 225 futures by 166.9 billion yen, resulting in a total net selling of 150.6 billion yen. On the other hand, individual investors bought physical securities by 137.1 billion yen and had a net buying of 81.5 billion yen in total. Companies sold physical securities exceeding 1 trillion 233 billion yen, while trust funds bought physical securities by 210.9 billion yen.

■ The trading value of the prime market fell below 4 trillion yen for the fourth consecutive day.

In the prime market, although trading was active on the 7th due to the U.S. employment statistics, the market later became sluggish and fell below the 4 trillion yen level for four consecutive business days. The Nikkei Average remained firm, but buying was concentrated on stocks with significant index impacts such as Advantest <6857> and Fast Retailing <9983>, leading to a widening of NT ratios to the 14.6 times range. Excluding the volatility on August 5th, the NT ratio has expanded to levels not seen since early April, highlighting the weakness of TOPIX and the strength of some Nikkei Average impact stocks. In the foreign exchange market, it settled at the high level of dollar-yen in the 148 yen range, but there was a cautious approach to active buying across a wide range of stocks due to volatile movements in the Chinese market after the National Day and selling on the wait for a return to the 0.04 million yen range. Although the House of Representatives was dissolved, there was no significant focus on election-related stocks, and the excitement towards the voting on the 27th is not particularly high.

Since 2000, there have been 8 dissolutions of the House of Representatives. Based on the closing price of the Nikkei Average, the win-loss ratio from the dissolution date to the voting is 7 wins and 1 loss, with an average increase rate of close to 4%. Although a strong trend conscious of "buying elections" has not been seen yet, as the official announcements including the public statements from each political party are completed on the 15th, there is a possibility that the market will also enter election mode.

■ The U.S. earnings announcements are intensifying

On the 11th, the U.S. stock market rebounded. The Dow Jones Average rose by 409.74 points to 42,863.86, the Nasdaq rose by 60.89 points to 18,342.94, and the S&P 500 rose by 34.98 points to 5,815.03 at the close of trading. With the onset of earnings announcements, U.S. stocks rose following strong results from JP Morgan and Wells Fargo. Next week, in addition to Citigroup and Alcoa, earnings announcements from NY Dow components such as Goldman Sachs and the Procter & Gamble Company are also on the horizon. The NY Dow, which is at an all-time high, may rise significantly due to the sharp rise in component stocks, and interest in earnings reports should remain high. Also, with Nvidia breaking above the upside resistance line from the all-time high in June, there are expectations for the Nasdaq to achieve a new all-time high.

Advantest's rise is noticeable, but if Tokyo Electron <8035> also sees buying, it will become the driving force for pushing up the Nikkei average. In the night session of the OSE, the Nikkei 225 futures closed at 39,760 yen, up 150 yen from the daytime closing price, influenced by the rise in US stocks. If the strong US stocks lead the Tokyo market, the Nikkei average could easily recover to the 40,000 yen range.

■ ECB board meeting scheduled for the 17th

Next week, domestically, the following are scheduled: August industrial production (final value) on the 15th, August machinery orders on the 16th, September trade balance on the 17th, September consumer price index on the 18th.

Overseas, the following are scheduled: September trade balance in China on the 14th, September employment statistics in the UK, October ZEW economic sentiment index in Germany and Europe, August industrial production index, October NY Fed Manufacturing Business Index in the US on the 15th, New Zealand's third-quarter consumer price index, Australia's September Westpac Leading Index, UK's September consumer price index, retail price index, producer price index, South Africa's August retail sales, US's September import price index on the 16th, Australia's September employment statistics, Turkey's Central Bank Policy Rate, EU's ECB Policy Rate, US's September retail sales, October Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, weekly initial jobless claims, September industrial production index, weekly crude oil inventories on the 17th, China's September new home sales price, Real GDP for the third quarter, September industrial production index, retail sales, UK's September retail sales, US's September housing starts, and more scheduled on the 18th.