但国泰君安期货称，客观而言，11月中国对西北欧出口箱量通常比8月少6-13%，最新11月有效运力比8月少2%左右，11月的供需面或仍弱于8月，除非船司加大停航力度，否则即期运价在11月上旬或很难出现强势反转。虽然短线随着马士基推涨幅度大超市场预期或仍可能偏强，但是我们对涨价落地的幅度目前持悲观态度。Recently, the shipping rates on the Europe route have been volatile and unpredictable. Market analysts point out two key areas of attention that need continuous monitoring...
This week, the freight index (Europe route) experienced large fluctuations, with the European freight index 2412 contract dropping by 25.21% on October 8, approaching the limit down; rising by 13.76% on October 10; hitting the limit up on October 11, with an increase of 13.84%, closing at 2494.3 points.
Spot end
Guotou Futures stated that the core driver of spot end has shifted towards airline price support expectations. After nearly 3 months of continuous decline in freight rates, airlines have started supporting prices in the off-season. Following Dafeng's announcement on Wednesday of raising November rates to $4060/FEU (October quoted price $3660/FEU), Maersk also issued a rate increase letter yesterday to $2925/4500 in November (October's latest opening price was $1500/2600). Meanwhile, The OA Alliance has announced two empty voyages in early November, and the average supply volume departing from East China in Weeks 45 and 46, originally lower due to many cancellations by THE Alliance in early November, will further drop to the level of 0.22 million TEUs under the new cancellation plan.
However, gtja Futures mentioned that objectively, in November, China's container exports to Northwest Europe are usually 6-13% lower than in August. The latest effective capacity in November is around 2% lower than in August. The supply and demand situation in November may still be weaker than in August. Unless shipping companies increase the intensity of cancellations, it will be difficult to see a strong reversal in spot rates in early November. Although in the short term, with Maersk pushing for higher increases beyond market expectations, spot rates may still tend to be strong, we currently hold a pessimistic view on the extent to which rate increases will be implemented.
Therefore, in the recent context, the market's focus is on the extent and implementation of the airlines' price support. We can continuously monitor the spot prices on the Europe route through the shipping rate monitoring tools - the main route freight rates, Drewry freight rates, and FBX freight rates functions (experience now).
News:
Huatai Futures stated that the geopolitical situation continues to ferment, still relatively complex. The pattern of container ships bypassing is still maintained. The number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and reaching the Gulf of Aden remains at a low level. On October 2nd, only 4 container ships passed through the Suez Canal (7-day average). The number of container ships passing through the Cape of Good Hope has significantly increased, with an average of about 17.86 ships passing every 7 days. The bypass structure will provide support for the spot prices of European container shipping contracts.
Therefore, we need to continue tracking the situation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, especially during the weekend when the market is closed. You can use the marine transportation monitoring tool - Flash News and Events function (click the link to experience), continue to track the situation of the Middle East conflict, and be prepared for the opening on Monday.
Market view
Green Dahua Futures stated that during the November European linear contract signing period, airlines may have a strong willingness to support prices. Different from last year when freight rates fell to the cost line and airlines announced price increases, airlines currently have higher profits. It will not be until the middle and late October that it can be determined whether the price increases can be implemented. Fundamentally, post-holiday capacity is gradually recovering, but marine transportation shipments are low. The situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, and major airlines such as Maersk and Herbert have decided to continue bypassing the Cape of Good Hope in 2025. Currently, the European linear freight rates in October continue to decline. The current market trading logic for airline price announcements is expected to be not very sustainable, and short-term price fluctuations are biased towards the upside. The near-month EC2410 contract fluctuates around 2200.
