Author | Wang Xiaojuan

In today's weather is good. Today's weather is good.

The robotaxi war has already entered the white-hot stage.

On October 11th, Beijing time, the long-delayed tesla Robotaxi was finally officially launched, and the model was officially named Cybercab, without a steering wheel and pedals. The cost is controlled below $30,000 (approximately 0.212 million RMB), and the operating cost including taxes and fees is as low as 30 to 40 cents per mile (currently about 2.1 to 2.8 RMB).

Of course, the achievement of this goal will have to wait until 2026.

Of course, competitors are not willing to fall behind. On the eve of the tesla Robotaxi launch, Baidu's Apollo is planning to take a step towards a bigger market and strategize to go abroad.

On October 9th, informed sources revealed to Wall Street News that Baidu's Apollo has been actively deploying globally, conducting in-depth communications with multiple international companies, planning to enter overseas markets, or first testing and deploying self-driving taxis in places like Hong Kong, Singapore, and the Middle East.

Peking News also learned that Baidu is about to release Apollo self-driving open platform 10.0, which will be equipped with Baidu's latest self-driving large model ADFM (Autonomous Driving Foundation Model). This upgrade will significantly enhance the safety, intelligence, and ease of use of the self-driving open platform, and this version is designed for global users.

At this point, announcing the overseas expansion plan, Roobee Loop is clearly going head-to-head with Tesla's Robotaxi.

However, for Chinese manufacturers, autonomous driving going global is not a new phenomenon.

As for Baidu, as early as 2016, it obtained a California autonomous driving test license.

Moreover, in the first half of this year, many autonomous driving companies competing in the capital markets are seeking greater growth through expansion into overseas markets. They are not only competing for overseas complete vehicle manufacturers to become suppliers of assisted driving but also attempting to implement L4 level Robotaxis in overseas markets.

For example, Xpeng Motors has carried out autonomous driving technology and implementation cooperation in countries like South Korea, Luxembourg, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates; another autonomous driving company WeRide's Robotaxi was already driving on the streets of Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, in August this year.

Over the past decade, autonomous driving has not only been a high ground where many talents compete but also considered one of the best manifestations of AI. After a decade, autonomous driving has transitioned from technological competition to the commercialization phase.

In the extensive commercialization process, Roobee Loop is still leading the pack.

Since last year, in cities like Wuhan, many ordinary consumers can also experience Baidu's RoboRun on the streets.

According to Baidu's second quarter financial report for 2024, RoboRun's self-driving orders supplied were approximately 0.899 million, a 26% year-on-year increase, with a total service volume exceeding 7 million orders. In terms of order volume, RoboRun has become the world's largest self-driving travel service platform.

In comparison, other Robotaxi companies only operate within certain cities' designated areas, with a smaller commercialization scope.

However, all companies are also accelerating. Another enterprise with a fast pace in commercialization is Waymo, a self-driving travel service provider under Alphabet, located across the Pacific Ocean.

In March this year, Waymo announced the provision of autonomous driving passenger services to employees in Austin, Texas starting from March 6th. According to data released in August, Waymo's weekly Robotaxi orders have reached 0.1 million.

The recently held Tesla's competition in the Robotaxi field is due to its autonomous driving capabilities already reflected in FSD.

This year, Tesla's FSD V12 version has been able to achieve an "end-to-end" artificial intelligence autonomous driving solution. Currently in North America, FSD has been widely deployed on Model 3 and Model Y. In addition, there is also increasing news about FSD entering China, all of which are unsettling for competitors.

On a global scale, the Robotaxi track is so hot because this industry is considered a trillion-dollar market with extremely high profit margins.

According to the consulting firm Frost & Sullivan's forecast, Robotaxi is expected to achieve large-scale commercialization around 2026. It is estimated that by 2030, Robotaxi will be widely adopted globally, with a penetration rate of 31.8% in smart travel in China, reaching 69.3% by 2035. By 2030, the market size of Robotaxi in China and globally is expected to reach 488.8 billion / 834.9 billion yuan respectively.

Xpeng Chairman He Xiaopeng has also made a judgment: "The Robotaxi industry will reach a turning point in 2026." With the technological reserve, Xpeng is also trying to share a piece of the pie in this race. The company has recently been expanding its Robotaxi team, with multiple positions offering an annual salary of nearly one million, and Xpeng's Robotaxi will also be launched in 2026.

Also actively entering the market is Yuanrong Qixing. Its CEO, Zhou Guang, revealed that Yuanrong has already begun mass production cooperation with several leading manufacturers, and is actively deploying the scaled operation of Robotaxi based on mass-produced vehicles.

According to Cathy Wood, the founder and CEO of Ark Investment Management, the Robotaxi business will be a $4-5 trillion revenue opportunity in the next five to ten years. This is a SaaS model with a gross margin of over 80%.

By comparison, even with high profit margins, the profit margins of current car companies are all below 30%.

This also explains why Musk has been emphasizing Robotaxi all along, and he has previously admitted that he can sell cars at zero profit and make money through FSD.

"Wood Sister" believes that Robotaxi is also an industry where the winner takes the lion's share. "The company that can get people from point A to point B the fastest and safest, minimizing wait times as much as possible, will win most of the market share."

This also explains why all companies are moving towards larger markets, starting the 'struggle among giants' mode.

However, while self-driving cars seem relatively easy to implement from a technological standpoint, they will inevitably face constraints such as data security and regulations when driving around the world. This is a challenge that these manufacturers will undoubtedly have to confront as they compete against each other.