分析认为，期货交易员目前确信“数据不稳定”。FOMC票委Raphael Bostic表示，重要的是看到数据是否能形成大的趋势，否则只可能是暂时的波动。例如，首申人数的急剧增加或许是受到飓风“海伦”的影响。Source: Wall Street See
Although the September employment report and consumer price index are higher than expected, it is important to look at whether individual data points form a larger trend or if they are just temporarily 'unstable.'
Although the US CPI for September released last night exceeded expectations across the board, traders still increased bets on a rate cut.
Analysts believe that futures traders are currently convinced that the "data is unstable." FOMC voter Raphael Bostic said it is important to see if the data can form a major trend, otherwise, it may only be temporary fluctuations. For example, the sharp increase in initial jobless claims may be influenced by Hurricane "Helen."
Currently, traders believe that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed at the November meeting is 87.1%, higher than 80.3%.
The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has risen to over 80%
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released data on Thursday showing that the US CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year in September, slightly slower than the previous value of 2.5%, but exceeded the expected value of 2.3%; core CPI for September (excluding volatile food and energy costs) increased by 3.3% year-on-year, slightly surpassing the expectations and the previous value of 3.2%.
Most Wall Street analysts believe that the September CPI data is mixed, although it reinforced the expectation that the Fed will slow down the pace of rate cuts, ruling out a significant 50 basis point rate cut, but it will not change the Fed's judgment that inflation is still on a downward trend.
Corpay's Chief Market Strategist Karl Schamotta stated:
"Investors may have been overly optimistic about a significant rate cut after the September meeting, but in the coming months, a gradual easing of interest rates is still the most likely outcome."
Federal Open Market Committee voting member Raphael Bostic stated that although the September employment report and Consumer Price Index were higher than expected, it is important to see if individual data points form a larger trend, or if they are just temporarily "unstable".
Among them, the sharp increase in initial claims data may be influenced by Hurricane "Helen", as RSM's chief economist Joseph Brusuelas stated: "The sharp increase in unemployment claims is related to the hurricane, a harbinger of recent key economic data distortion."
"If recent key economic data is generally unstable and distorted, perhaps the best thing we can do is to calmly wait for the turbulence to pass."
Editor / jayden
