On the morning of the 11th Beijing time, after months of delay, the Tesla 'Robotaxi Day' event finally officially took place.

Although Musk was nearly an hour late and his speech lasted less than 30 minutes, the prototypes he introduced one after another - the self-driving taxi 'Cybercab,' the self-driving bus 'Robovan,' and the new generation Optimus robot - all kept the on-site audience cheering non-stop.

However, beneath the cheers, the real surprises brought by Musk were actually limited: He did not provide any technical details behind the self-driving taxi rental service, nor did he specifically discuss the future commercialization path of autonomous driving cars; the long-awaited low-cost Model 2 model by Wall Street also did not make an appearance.

As of the time of publication, Tesla's stock price has dropped more than 9% in early U.S. trading, clearly indicating market disappointment.

Highlights of the Tesla conference:

1. Self-driving taxi Cybercab: a two-door two-seater car without a steering wheel and pedals, using inductive charging, expected to cost less than $30,000, production expected to start in 2026, transportation costs estimated at about 20 cents per mile;

2. Self-driving van Robovan: can accommodate up to 20 people, also used for cargo transportation, travel costs per mile about 10-15 cents;

3. Autonomous driving technology: Tesla is expected to launch the Model 3 and Model Y unsupervised fully autonomous driving (FSD) function in Texas and California, USA next year;

4. Optimus robot: Under mass production conditions, the cost of Optimus will range from $0.02 million to $0.03 million. From the performance on-site, Optimus robot has greatly improved flexibility compared to previous versions.

Will Musk's self-driving "big cake" fall short again?

For the market, Tesla's innovation in self-driving technology is definitely the most shocking. However, despite Musk's claim that starting from next year, unmanned driving services using its self-driving software may be launched in Texas and California, the market is no longer completely buying into his exaggerated promises.

After all, Musk's previous commitments in this area have disappointed the market many times: as early as 2017, he promised to achieve fully autonomous driving from Los Angeles to New York by the end of that year, but obviously failed. In 2019, he predicted that by 2020, 1 million self-driving rental cars would be on the road, but it turned out to be just empty words.

Under the impact of many false alarms, many Wall Street analysts can no longer fully believe Musk's promises.

Moreover, Tesla's adopted self-driving technology is different from its peers - Tesla only uses cameras and artificial intelligence to understand the surrounding environment of the vehicle, instead of using lidar and high-definition maps like Waymo or Baidu. This may mean that its self-driving technology may face more questions regarding safety.

Therefore, even after Musk's promises, many Wall Street analysts still believe that, given regulatory barriers and doubts about the safety of its self-driving technology, Tesla will need a few more years to launch self-driving rental cars.

Jefferies financial analysts stated that Musk did not provide verifiable evidence of progress in Tesla's self-driving technology, making it difficult for us to evaluate the feasibility of Musk's outlined goals at the conference, as there are currently no precedents for achieving higher levels of self-driving solely through visual methods.

In terms of the business model, although Musk briefly mentioned that Robotaxi will open up a new business model - managing a very large fleet by a single entity, he glossed over many details.

For many complex real-world issues, Musk did not provide answers, such as, "How to deal with regulatory barriers?" and "How to maintain Cybercab if it breaks down on the road?" and so on.

Model 2 is still nowhere to be seen?

For many investors, the biggest mistake of this event was Musk's failure to introduce a more affordable electric car (i.e., the rumored Model 2 priced at $25,000) to revitalize its aging product lineup.

CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson expressed disappointment in the lack of clarity in Tesla's recent product roadmap. "We believe this event has little impact on changing the opaque mid-term earnings prospects," he said.

Rumors have suggested that Cybercab may share the same platform with a new passenger vehicle model, indicating that the official debut of the Tesla Model 2 may not be too far behind after the debut of Cybercab.

However, the well-known automotive technology news website electrek also pointed out an obvious flaw in Cybercab: it only has two seats. This implies that Cybercab would have difficulty accommodating a family of three or multiple passengers. Moreover, if a large number of such two-seater cars hit the streets in the future, it could potentially exacerbate road congestion issues.

Unexpected surprise Robovan: unfortunately lacks details

Compared to Cybercab, which was rumored before the event, there were not many speculations about Robovan from the outside world. Therefore, for many investors, the Robovan showcased by Musk at the event can be considered an unexpected surprise.

This model is larger in size compared to cybercab, with hidden wheels and no real windshield. Its exterior design is clearly inspired by the science fiction movie 'Blade Runner,' with an integrated design overall. It features large light bars on the front facade and transparent glass on both sides of the roof.

Musk stated that Robovan can carry passengers and goods, with a capacity to carry up to 20 people (although only 14 seats are visible in the pictures) or a large amount of cargo, suitable for commercial or personal use.

However, it is unfortunate that Musk did not announce the production date and price of Robovan.

Furthermore, compared to Cybercabs, Tesla's demonstration of Robovan's features seems limited: Robovan only briefly showcased its driving and passenger-carrying capabilities during its appearance, and in the second half of the post-event live experience phase, Tesla did not provide the opportunity for the audience to experience Robovan firsthand - attendees could only experience riding Cybercabs and the Model 3 and Model Y with autonomous driving capabilities.

Overall, Musk's 'pie in the sky' event was surprising but still lacking in details. As Dennis Dick, a trader at Triple D Trading, mentioned:

"Everything looks great, but there are not many details in the timetable. I am a shareholder, very disappointed. I think the market wants a more definite timetable. I think he (Musk) didn't say too much about anything. ... He didn't provide too much information."

Editor/new