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结构性转变已至!3000美元的黄金并非不可能?

Structural transformation has arrived! Is gold at $3,000 not impossible?

Golden10 Data ·  Oct 11 17:09

The analyst pointed out that although the price of gold has shown strong momentum over the past year, precious metals have just entered a new bull market cycle, and $3000 per ounce gold is not out of reach.

Despite the recent inability of the gold market to attract new bullish momentum after continuously setting historic highs, an analyst believes that the rise in gold prices is far from over.

Chantelle Schieven, Chief Research Officer of Capitalight Research, recently mentioned that although the recent slowing pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may continue to put pressure on gold prices as investors adjust their market expectations, geopolitical uncertainties continue to support precious metals.

Schieven pointed out that geopolitical turmoil has been a key factor in the nearly 30% increase in gold prices this year. However, she added that the safe-haven premium for gold is still low as investors have just started paying attention to specific geopolitical hotspots, mainly the escalating conflicts in the Middle East, with Israel's attacks on Hezbollah triggering Iran's ballistic missile attacks.

She further mentioned that as a safe-haven asset, the continuously rising geopolitical tensions could easily push gold prices up by 10%.

She said, 'In this scenario, reaching $3,000 per ounce for gold is not out of reach. If we see further escalation in the Middle East conflicts, I expect gold prices to reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of this year. But if tensions ease, we might also see a 10% drop in gold prices.'

Looking beyond short-term fluctuations, Schieven stated that with long-term factors receiving attention, gold continues to have strong support. She described gold's potential as something that can change the market.

She said, 'We are now seeing factors impacting the gold market that we have been monitoring and discussing for the past 16 years. We have always viewed the continuously growing debt as a long-term factor driving gold prices, but someday, long-term issues will turn into current concerns. All the minor things we have seen over the past two years are now accumulating, which is the reason for the rise in gold prices.'

Schieven pointed out that despite the strong upward momentum in gold prices over the past year, precious metals have just entered a new bull market cycle. She said, 'We are still far from the peak of this gold cycle. We have not even reached the frenzy stage of real price increase.'

Schieven states that she remains bullish on the long-term outlook because it is difficult to see any changes in the current bullish environment. She points out that even if the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends, there will still be severe distrust among nations worldwide. She said this distrust will continue to weaken the US dollar as countries are developing new trade agreements and reducing reliance on the dollar.

She said, 'The world is moving away from globalization. The US dollar will not disappear, but its influence is weakening as countries seek alternatives, they will continue to buy more gold.'

Meanwhile, Schieven stated that sovereign debt levels, including that of the United States, continue to rise, undermining the purchasing power of all fiat currencies. While the US government will welcome a new leader next year, Schieven pointed out that both presidential candidates have not addressed the US debt issue. Currently, the US debt exceeds $35 trillion, and regardless of who takes office, the government deficit will continue to grow.

She added that besides geopolitical uncertainties, the threat of a global debt crisis is the biggest risk facing the global economy. She said, 'Central banks cannot maintain interest rates at high levels, so there is more uncertainty about inflation. In my opinion, this factor alone will keep the bullish trend of gold and silver in the coming years.'

Schieven indicates that while the price of gold may experience fluctuations in the short term, it will eventually reach a level of $3,000 per ounce in a sustainable bull market.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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