Recently, aluminum oxide has repeatedly set new highs, with the aluminum oxide 2411 contract rising over 20% from a low of 3728 in early September to a current quote of 4517 yuan/ton as of 10:15 on October 11th.

Supply side

According to Mysteel, as of October 10, 2024, the total national inventory of aluminum oxide is 3.956 million tons, a decrease of 0.017 million tons compared to the previous period. The decrease in inventory indicates a possible shortage in the supply and demand situation of aluminum oxide in the near future.

Use the aluminum oxide watching tool - major events feature (experience immediately) to timely track the release of important supply and demand data.

According to the research report of Dayue Futures, the following is a seasonal chart of aluminum oxide inventory. Aluminum oxide inventory is at a low level compared to the same period in the past five years, and the supply-demand pattern is relatively tight.

Zhonghui Futures stated that there is still a tight supply situation on the aluminum oxide supply side. Environmental protection disturbances in Zhengzhou affect the production capacity of bauxite, while the domestic bauxite shortage still limits the increase in operating capacity of aluminum oxide. In the short term, there is a partial gap in the supply of spot aluminum oxide; Yunnan region is expected to reduce production, but the expectation has weakened recently, and the supply-demand pattern of aluminum oxide is relatively balanced.

From the demand side, the actual consumption of China's gold in 2020 reached 820.98 tons.

According to the news from the Yangtze Nonferrous Metals Network on October 9, on the consumption side, during the domestic holidays, many large and medium-sized downstream processing enterprises did not completely shut down, but maintained a relatively normal production rhythm. This phenomenon indicates that despite the holidays, market demand has remained relatively active. It is also worth noting that the demand for popular sectors such as new energy and photovoltaics after the holiday continues to improve, bringing positive expectations for future aluminum market consumption.

Spot price

By using the aluminum oxide tool - mainstream regional aluminum oxide spot price and Platts aluminum oxide price (click the link to experience), we found that the aluminum oxide spot price continues to rise, indicating a good performance in the aluminum oxide spot market, and there may be a shortage in the supply and demand pattern.

Market view

Minmetals Futures:

On the raw material side, there has been no further progress in the short-term domestic bauxite resumption, with the focus of imported ore arrivals shifting downwards in September. Short-term ore remains in short supply, but expectations are widening for future ore supply.

On the supply side, the high profits are stimulating aluminum oxide smelters to actively resume production. However, long-term high-load production has led to frequent reductions and maintenance in aluminum oxide plants. In the short term, production capacity is unlikely to increase significantly. Combining the impact of winter heating season production restrictions and production plans, aluminum oxide supply is expected to significantly loosen or reach a turning point in the first quarter of next year.

On the demand side, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum is steadily increasing, with short-term low inventory driving downstream active restocking. In the fourth quarter, it is necessary to monitor the impact of the dry season on Yunnan's electrolytic aluminum production capacity.

In terms of strategy, the current strong downstream restocking demand is driving further tightness in spot circulation, with continuous disturbances in overseas supply. It is expected that the short-term aluminum oxide futures prices will remain strong, with the reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2411: 4100-4500 yuan/ton.