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三只松鼠(300783):3Q24利润预告略超市场预期 我们预计今年激励完成度高

Three Squirrels (300783): The 3Q24 profit forecast slightly exceeds market expectations. We expect this year's incentive completion to be high

The company forecast net profit for 3Q24 was about 0.48-0.052 billion yuan, +200.45% to +224.81% year-on-year

Net profit attributable to 1-3Q24 was 3.38 billion yuan to 0.342 billion yuan, up +99.13% to +101.43% year on year; net profit without return to mother was 2.62 to 0.269 billion yuan, up +206.74% year on year to +214.92%. Among them, net profit for 3Q24 was 0.48 to 0.052 billion yuan, +200.45% to +224.81% year-on-year; net profit without return to mother was 0.34 to 0.041 billion yuan, or +176.65% to +233.6% year-on-year. The 3Q24 profit exceeded market expectations. We expect the profit margin improvement to be better than expected, mainly due to the company's improved operating efficiency.

Key points of interest

We expect the 3Q revenue side to grow 20% +, with offline channels growing faster. 1) Offline channels: The company reorganized offline distribution channels in the 3rd quarter of this year and was fully prepared for Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day events. According to CICC supermarket channel data, the total GMV of the three squirrels in July-August supermarket channels was +48% (average price -11%), which is clearly better than the overall performance of the industry. 2) Online channels: We expect the overall double-digit growth of online channels, with Douyin channels growing faster.

We expect 3Q24 net interest rates to continue to improve year over year. 1) Gross profit margin: 1H24 gross margin increased by 1ppt to 25.8%. Among them, the 1H24 nut category is expected to continue the trend of steady and slight increase in gross margin in 3Q due to the extension of gross margin to the upstream supply chain +1.54ppt year-on-year. 2) We expect the 3Q sales expense ratio to be relatively stable. The 3Q management fee rate continues the year-on-year downward trend in the first half of the year, mainly related to the company's overall organizational changes and personnel structure streamlining and efficiency improvement this year.

We expect that incentives will be completed in 2024, that the 3Q offline distribution reform and adjustment will continue, and it is expected that they will gradually increase in 4Q24-2025. 1) Considering the strong demand for the company's cost-effective product terminals in 2024, we expect that the incentive target will be completed in 2024 with a high degree of certainty (the incentive target is 10 billion yuan in revenue, 0.4 billion yuan without considering incentive expenses). 2) Offline distribution channels: The company held a national dealer conference at the end of August (according to the official account of the Three Squirrels founders) to make iterative adjustments to the product line. 3Q is in the initial trial phase, and we expect to gradually expand the next 4Q-2025.

Profit forecasting and valuation

We maintain our 2024/2025 earnings forecast. Considering recent sector valuation increases, we raised our target price by 20% to 27 yuan. The company traded 24.3/19.6 times P/E in 2024/25. The target price corresponds to approximately 27/22 times 2024/25 P/E and 11% upside. Maintain outperforming industry ratings.

risks

Demand fell short of expectations, offline distribution channels fell short of expectations, and competition intensified.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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