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中东危机只是噪音?2025年油价或暴跌至50美元!

Middle East crisis just noise? Oil prices in 2025 may plummet to $50!

Golden10 Data ·  09:29

The analyst pointed out that traders should not bet on a disruption in Middle East oil supply, as the global oil supply is already so excessive, prices will inevitably fall.

Tom Kloza, global energy analyst at the Oil Price Information Service, said that the oil market will experience a turbulent year in 2025, and crude oil prices may drop "very very" low.

The oil analyst mentioned that despite concerns about escalating conflicts in the Middle East pushing oil prices higher, crude oil prices will face greater downward pressure in 2025.

In an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, he said traders should not bet on supply disruptions in the Middle East, as global oil supply is already so excessive that prices are bound to fall.

According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, in 2023, the United States' oil production exceeded that of any country in history. Goldman Sachs previously estimated that due to factors such as improved drilling efficiency, the production boom may last at least until 2026.

Kloza stated that by the end of this year, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) led by Saudi Arabia is also expected to increase more crude oil production. He cited a recent ministerial meeting that reviewed the oil market situation.

Kloza said: "Oil prices will continue to decline, as one must take into account, with the moderating temperatures in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, there may be approximately 0.6 million or 0.7 million barrels of additional crude oil exports. You are facing a downward market."

Warren Patterson, an analyst at ING Groep, recently stated in a report to clients: "The future direction of oil prices will depend on Israel's response. A similar response to the April attacks on Iran could lead to the eventual dissipation of risk premiums, making fundamental factors once again the primary driver."

Patterson said that if Israel attacks Iran's midstream and upstream oil assets, it will hit Iran's oil export capacity, have a significant impact on the global market, and may push oil prices up to $90 per barrel in 2025. ING Groep currently projects that the average price of Brent crude oil next year will reach $72 per barrel.

However, Kloza dismisses concerns about Middle East conflicts leading to supply disruptions.

He said: "Although theoretically possible, the actual probability is very low, so it is not worth betting on."

Kloza stated that large investors are no longer trying to "chase" oil, as he believes this may limit the upside potential of crude oil prices.

He mentioned the views of other energy forecasting institutions, which predict that oil prices could drop as low as $50 per barrel, a decrease of about 37% from Thursday's Brent crude oil trading price.

He said: "I believe oil prices are bound to be much lower, and whoever wins the next month's presidential election may encounter some tightening of oil prices. If OPEC+ reintroduces the production cuts they made earlier into the market, I think this will be a real issue in 2025."

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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