Finance Link News October 11th (Editor Huang Junzhi) Tom Kloza, Global Energy Analysis Director at Oil Price Information Service (OPIS), stated that the oil market will enter a turbulent year in 2025, with crude oil prices potentially falling "very very" low.

The oil analyst mentioned that despite concerns about escalating conflicts in the Middle East pushing oil prices higher, crude oil prices will face greater downward pressure in 2025.

"Traders should not bet on supply disruptions in the Middle East, as global oil supply is so excessive that prices will inevitably fall." he said.

The Energy Information Administration of the United States has shown that as early as 2023, US oil production has surpassed that of any country in history. Goldman Sachs previously estimated that due to factors such as improved drilling efficiency, the production boom may continue at least until 2026.

Kloza also stated that by the end of this year, the OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia will also produce more crude oil.

"I think it (oil price) is still pointing lower. You are facing a downward market." Kloza dismisses concerns that conflicts in the Middle East could lead to supply disruptions.

At the same time, Kloza also mentioned that major investors are no longer trying to "chase" oil, as he believes this may limit the upward potential of crude oil prices. He mentioned forecasts from other energy prediction agencies, which suggest that oil prices could drop to as low as $50 per barrel, about 37% lower than the current trading price of Brent crude oil.

"I believe that the price of oil is destined to be much lower. All of these indicate that by 2025, oil production will exceed actual global demand. If the OPEC+ alliance reintroduces the production they previously cut back into the market, I think this will be a real issue in 2025," he added.

Coincidentally, the well-known Australian investment bank Macquarie recently released a report, issuing a warning about the future trends of the global oil market. The report points out that with the increase in supply from non-OPEC countries, coupled with the slow growth in global oil demand, the global oil market may face a situation of "severe oversupply" next year.

Macquarie's analysts believe that in the context of severe oversupply, the price of oil could drop more than market expectations, possibly hovering above $50 per barrel.

Their base expectation is that oil prices will rise to $79 per barrel this quarter, then fall to $73 in the fourth quarter. By 2025, oil prices will further decline, reaching $70 in the first quarter, $64 in the second quarter, $69 in the third quarter, and $72 in the fourth quarter.

Editor/ping