三季度内需放缓的影响落地，四季度内需有望回暖，公司业绩继续保持高增长。根据中国缝制机械协会信息，缝制机械上半年内销有较好的恢复，也让公司上半年业绩有较好表现。协会展望3Q24内销景气度会有所回落，主要由于国内整体市场需求依旧较为疲软，扩大内需的政策难以快速见效，下半年行业经济可能将经历三季度放缓到四季度再回升的非直线振荡复苏过程，这与公司三季度利润环比下降的走势也较为接近。目前在三季度内需走弱的背景下公司依旧实现了较好业绩表现，单三季度利润同比去年大幅增长，展望四季度则更加乐观，伴随内需的修复公司业绩增长有望继续加速。Brief performance review
On October 10, 2024, the company released a performance forecast for the first three quarters of 24. 1Q-3Q24 achieved net profit of 0.6-0.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.49%-52.77%; of these, 3Q24 achieved net profit to mother of 0.183-0.213 billion yuan, an increase of 28.87% -50% year-on-year, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.99%-20.09%.
Management analysis
The impact of the slowdown in domestic demand in the third quarter came to fruition. Domestic demand is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter, and the company's performance continues to grow at a high rate. According to information from the China Sewing Machinery Association, domestic sales of sewing machinery recovered well in the first half of the year, which also gave the company a good performance in the first half of the year. The Association expects the domestic sales boom to decline somewhat in 3Q24, mainly due to the fact that overall domestic market demand is still weak, and policies to expand domestic demand are difficult to achieve quick results. In the second half of the year, the industry economy may experience a non-linear fluctuating recovery process that slows down in the third quarter and then picks up again. This is also close to the trend of the company's profit decline in the third quarter. Currently, against the backdrop of weakening domestic demand in the third quarter, the company still achieved good performance. The profit for the third quarter increased sharply compared to last year, and the outlook for the fourth quarter is even more optimistic. The company's performance growth is expected to continue to accelerate along with domestic demand restoration.
Industrial sewing machine export data showed strong performance, and we continue to be optimistic about the company's overseas growth prospects. According to the China Sewing Machinery Association, in July '24, the export volume of industrial sewing machines was 0.4 million units, up 5.58% year on year; the export value was 0.133 billion US dollars, up 19.54% year on year. From January to July '24, the cumulative export volume of industrial sewing machines was 2.68 million units, up 2.09% year on year; export value was 0.862 billion US dollars, up 7.2% year on year. This year, China's industrial sewing machine exports have gone through a process of gradual transformation from negative growth to positive growth. Considering that both China and the US are currently in a cycle of interest rate cuts, terminal consumption data is expected to improve, and industrial sewing machine exports are also expected to continue to grow at a high rate. The company has actively deployed overseas markets in recent years. 1H24's export revenue was 1.454 billion yuan, up 0.89% year on year. The growth rate changed from negative to positive compared to 23. Combined with industry data, the company's export growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to accelerate further compared to the first half of the year, and continues to be optimistic about the company's overseas growth prospects.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
The company is expected to achieve net profit of 0.789/0.997/1.219 billion yuan from 24 to 26, corresponding to the current PE15X/12X/10X. Considering the company's leading position in the industry, industry sentiment is expected to recover and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
The recovery in the sewing machinery boom fell short of expectations, breakthroughs in complete smart customers fell short of expectations, and shareholders' holdings were at risk.
