Goldman Sachs Group published a research report that even if Vanke (2202.HK)In recent years, it has expanded to new business areas such as leasing, logistics, commercial real estate and so on, but it is believed that it will still take many years to develop to make up for the retrogression of core business.Neutral"down to"Sell".
Goldman Sachs pointed out that among the 90 major cities in the mainland in the first nine months of last year, 41 of Vanke's sales ranked in the top three, meaning that its market share growth space is limited. Vanke's market share, as the leader, is expected to rise to about 6% by 2030 and then remain stable, but at the same time, the overall market size may gradually shrink under the slowdown of urbanization and the aging population.
The bank believes that Vanke's valuation is reasonable at this stage, but considering that sales will decline in the next few years, the target price will be lowered from HK $35.1 to HK $32.7, a discount of about 15% to net asset value; and Vanke A will be reduced to "SellThe target price was lowered from 31.6 yuan to 29.2 yuan.
Goldman Sachs Group also downgraded China overseas (0688.HK)Rated to "NeutralIt is believed that its growth forecast has been fully reflected in the stock price, pointing out that since Cofco was added to the buy list in 2015, its share price has risen by 22%, compared with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 15% over the same period. Under the influence of negative conditions such as management restructuring and weak sales and earnings growth, its performance is inferior to that of its peers.
Based on the latest average price of land acquisition and sales, the bank raised its earnings per share forecast for 2020-2021 by 9 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively, and lowered its target price by 6 per cent to HK $32.80.