According to three Gulf sources, Gulf countries are lobbying Washington to prevent Israel from attacking Iran's oil facilities, as they are concerned that their own oil facilities may come under attack by Iranian proxies if the conflict escalates.

Three sources close to government circles stated that to avoid being drawn into the crossfire, Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have also refused to allow Israel to fly in their airspace to launch any attacks against Iran, and have informed Washington of this.

Israel has promised that Iran will pay a price for last week's missile strikes, while Iran has stated that any retaliation will face a massive response, raising concerns about the outbreak of a larger-scale war in the region, potentially involving the USA.

These actions by Gulf countries come as Iran's non-Arab Shi'ite diplomatic efforts are underway, persuading its Sunni Gulf neighbors to use their influence in Washington, as there is increasing concern that Israel may target Iran's oil production facilities.

Iranian officials and diplomats revealed that in this week's talks, Iran warned Saudi Arabia that if Israel receives any assistance from Saudi Arabia in launching attacks, it cannot guarantee the safety of Saudi Arabia's oil facilities. Saudi analyst Ali Shihabi, who is closely connected to the Saudi royal family, stated, 'Iranians have declared: If Gulf countries open their airspace to Israel, that would be considered an act of war.'

The diplomat said Iran has sent a clear message to Saudi Arabia that its allies in countries like Iraq or Yemen may respond if they see support for Israel against Iran in the region.

Gulf and Iranian sources reported that the potential Israeli strikes were a focus of the meeting between Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is currently on a Gulf tour seeking support, and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi.

A Gulf source close to the government circles said that the visit of the Iranian Foreign Minister and the level of communication between Saudi Arabia and the US Department of Defense are part of efforts to coordinate the resolution of the crisis.

A Washington insider familiar with the discussions confirmed that Gulf officials have been in contact with their American counterparts expressing concerns about the potential scope of expected Israeli retaliation.

When asked whether the Gulf governments have requested Washington to ensure that Israel's response is proportional, the White House declined to comment. US President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed Israel's retaliatory action on Wednesday, both describing it as constructive.

Former Deputy Director of the US National Intelligence Agency and current analyst at the Washington Atlantic China Welding Consumables, Inc., Jonathan Panikoff, said, "Anxiety in the Gulf states is likely to be a key topic in negotiations with Israel, in an attempt to persuade Israel to respond cautiously."

Is the global oil supply at risk?

OPEC, effectively led by Saudi Arabia, has sufficient idle oil production capacity, which would be enough to compensate for any damage if Israeli retaliatory actions were to target some of Iran's oil facilities.

However, most of the surplus production capacity is in the Gulf region, so if Saudi Arabia or the UAE's oil facilities were also targeted, the world could face an oil supply issue.

Since the 2019 attack on the Saudi Aramco oil field, which led to a global decrease in oil supply by more than 5%, Saudi Arabia has remained vigilant against attacks by Iran.

In recent years, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran has eased, but trust issues still exist. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE all have US military facilities.

Another Gulf source said that concerns about oil facilities and the possibility of a wider regional conflict are also central topics of discussion between UAE officials and their American counterparts.

In 2022, Yemeni Houthi forces associated with Iran launched missiles and drones at fuel trucks near a refinery owned by the UAE National Oil Company, ADNOC, claiming to have attacked the refinery.

The Gulf source said, 'Gulf countries do not allow Israel to use their airspace. They will not allow Israeli missiles to pass through, and they also hope Israel will not attack their oil facilities.'

Three Gulf sources emphasized that Israel could launch attacks through Jordan or Iraq, but using the airspace of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or Qatar is not possible, nor is it strategically necessary.

Analysts also point out that Israel has other options, including using its aerial refueling capabilities, which would enable Israeli aircraft to fly along the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, then to the Gulf, and finally return.

"Caught in the midst of missile wars"

Two senior Israeli officials stated that Israel will adjust its response, and as of Wednesday, Israel has not yet decided whether to attack Iran's oil fields. According to these officials, this option is one of the many presented by the defense institutions to Israeli leaders.

Israeli Defense Minister Gantz said on Wednesday: "Our strikes will be deadly, precise, and most importantly, unexpected. They will not understand what happened and how it happened. They will see the results."

Three Gulf sources said that Saudi Arabia, as a major oil exporter, and neighboring oil-producing countries including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain, have a strong interest in easing tensions in the Middle East.

The second Gulf source said, "We are in the midst of a missile war. People are very concerned, especially if Israel's targets are Iran's oil facilities."

Three Gulf sources said that an Israeli attack on Iran's oil infrastructure will have global implications, especially for Harris, who will compete with Trump in the presidential election on November 5. The first Gulf source said, "If oil prices soar to $120 per barrel, it will harm the US economy and Harris' chances in the election. So they (the Americans) will not allow the war to escalate."

Gulf sources said that despite having advanced missiles and Patriot air defense systems, protecting all oil facilities remains a challenge. Therefore, the primary method is still diplomacy: signaling to Iran that Gulf countries do not pose a threat.

Bernard Haykel, a Middle East studies professor at Princeton University, pointed out that Saudi Arabia is very vulnerable, "because Iran can attack these facilities due to their proximity."