Source: Wall Street See

Once only existed in science fiction novels, "mind control" is now rapidly approaching the real world.

According to the research reports released by Morgan Stanley on the 9th, Brain-Computer Interface (BCI), the new star in the technology field, is expected to achieve commercialization within 5 years, illuminating the medical sector.

From Parkinson's disease to depression, BCI directly connects the brain to external devices, allowing patients to control machines directly with their minds, and potentially restore motor functions, improve cognitive abilities, and even achieve deeper human-machine interactions.

According to Morgan Stanley, BCI technology could become a significant breakthrough in future medical technology, providing new treatment options for neurological disorders patients, and bringing a market opportunity of 400 billion USD.

In the future, as technology matures and costs decrease, BCI may even enter the mass market, becoming a core component of next-generation smart devices. This will completely revolutionize our way of interacting with the world.

What is Brain-Computer Interface (BCI)?

The third episode of the science fiction British drama series "Black Mirror", titled "Playtest", tells the story of protagonist Cooper participating in an advanced virtual reality (VR) game test. A receiver resembling a small mushroom is inserted into the back of his neck to connect to the game system.

By using technology that influences brain consciousness imaging, the game makes Cooper's experience extremely realistic to the point where he struggles to distinguish between the virtual world and the real world.

This mushroom-like device can be understood as a Brain-Computer Interface (BCI). In simple terms, BCI is a technology that translates thoughts into actions by connecting the brain's electrical signals to external devices.

Every decision we make (even thoughts) simultaneously triggers billions of neurons in our internal neural network. BCI utilizes all brain-generated electrical activities to drive outputs.

Morgan Stanley points out that BCI technology is not a new concept. In fact, its research history can be traced back to the 1920s.

Thanks to advancements in neuroscience and computing technology in recent years, the practical application of BCI technology is accelerating. Companies like Neuralink by Elon Musk are driving this technology from concept to clinical trials.

In January 2024, the company successfully implanted the N1 chip for the first time into a patient named Noland Arbaugh, who had lost limb function since a car accident in 2016. After the surgery, he was able to control the cursor on a computer through brain signals and even play video games like "Mario Kart".

A Morgan Stanley report indicates that BCI technology is expected to be first applied in the treatment of a range of neurological diseases such as Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS), stroke, spinal cord injury, Multiple Sclerosis (MS), and depression. This technology can directly convert brain activity into observable behaviors, such as moving robotic arms, controlling computer cursors, and even achieving complex limb recoveries.

400 billion USD market size, with 10 million patient candidates.

One of the most eye-catching data in Morgan Stanley's report is the potential size of the BCI technology market in the USA, estimated to reach a potential market size (TAM) of 400 billion USD.

According to Morgan Stanley's analysis, there are nearly 10 million potential BCI candidates in the early and mid-stage markets in the USA.

The target users of early-stage BCI technology are mainly around 2 million patients with severe upper limb functional impairment or neurological disorders, expected to be the initial beneficiaries of BCI technology.

The estimated market size of this early stage is 80 billion USD, and with the maturity and promotion of the technology, the potential market is expected to expand to more patients, further driving the overall market size growth.

Morgan Stanley points out that after the commercial maturity of early-stage BCI, more significant mid-term TAM expansion is expected to occur around 2040, predicting that the market size in this stage will be approximately 320 billion USD in total.

Mid-term patients include about 0.8 million stroke patients in the USA, over 1.1 million epilepsy patients, and 4.5 million depression patients, with a total size about 2.5 times larger than the early-stage patient group. Morgan Stanley believes this will become the core driving force for market growth after the formative period.

Overall, it is expected that the implant revenue in the BCI market during the period from 2030 to 2045 (revenue obtained through the sale of implantable medical instruments) will be slightly above 12 billion USD. This means a penetration rate of approximately 2.8%, with the number of implant recipients slightly less than 270,000, while the appropriate number of implant recipients is considered to be 9.7 million.

Commercial applications are expected to be achieved within the next five years, but BCI still faces challenges.

Morgan Stanley's report believes that BCI technology is expected to achieve commercial applications in the next five years, such as applications in the treatment of motor neuron diseases, strokes, spinal cord injuries, etc.

These patients share the commonality of severe limb dysfunction due to nervous system damage. BCI technology will help these patients regain some functions by connecting the brain to external devices, and may even achieve the goal of independent living again.

Morgan Stanley predicts that in the next five to ten years, BCI technology is also expected to expand into non-medical fields, such as games, augmented reality, etc. With the maturity of the technology and the reduction in costs, BCI technology may no longer be limited to assisting patients with neurological diseases, and may even enter the mass market as a core component of the next generation of smart devices.

Although the future of BCI technology seems bright, Morgan Stanley also pointed out the current challenges.

Firstly, there is an issue with the maturity of the technology. Although some companies have entered the human clinical trial stage, there is still a long way to go before large-scale commercial applications.

Secondly, there are regulatory issues. BCI technology involves invasive device implants and the collection of neural signals, requiring ensuring the safety and effectiveness of the devices, which needs to go through strict clinical trials and approval processes.

In addition, the popularization of BCI technology also faces ethical and privacy issues. Since this technology directly reads and processes brain signals, protecting user privacy has become a new challenge. Morgan Stanley believes that the resolution of these issues will depend on the joint efforts of regulatory agencies, technology companies, and the academic community.

Editor / jayden