According to the data released on Thursday, the overall inflation rate in the United States slowed down in September, but still exceeded expectations, indicating a pause in the recent process of easing price pressures. This may provide a reason for the Federal Reserve to slow down its interest rate cuts.

In September, the seasonally unadjusted CPI in the United States fell from 2.5% in the previous month to 2.4%, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline since February 2021, but higher than the market's expected 2.3%. The seasonally unadjusted core CPI in the United States recorded 3.3% in September, reaching a new high since June, higher than the market's expected 3.2%. The month-on-month growth rates of overall CPI and core CPI in September were 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, consistent with the previous values and exceeding expectations.

Meanwhile, in the week ending October 5th, the initial jobless claims in the United States recorded 0.258 million people, higher than the expected 0.23 million and the previous value of 0.225 million, reaching a new high since the week of August 5, 2023. This may be influenced by factors such as hurricanes.

After the release of the US CPI data, the market experienced significant volatility. The three major US stock index futures witnessed a short-term decline, with Nasdaq futures dropping by 0.5%.

The US dollar index briefly touched the 103 level, currently trading flat ahead of the non-farm data release, with a 15-minute range of nearly 50 points. Spot gold saw a short-term price swing of 17 dollars, hitting an intraday high.

Short-term US interest rate futures rose after the inflation data release. Traders began to unwind their bets on the Federal Reserve pausing its rate cuts in November, increasing bets on a 25 basis point cut.

Analyst Enda Curran pointed out that the upward pressure on inflation from the housing sector was expected, but the food sector also seemed to play a role. The housing index rose by 0.2% in September, while the food index rose by 0.4%. These two indices together accounted for over 75% of the total growth in all items.

At first glance, the CPI figures are indeed high, as both the month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates of both overall and core CPI have exceeded expectations. The rise in core prices is not just a rounding issue, as it increased by 0.312% in that month. Super core service prices rose by 0.4% in that month, the fastest pace since April.

However, analyst Cameron Crise pointed out that hidden behind the scenes is the sharp rise in initial jobless claims, with an increase of 0.258 million people as of the week ending October 5th. This seems to be caused by Hurricane 'Helene'. The market's reaction to the jobless claims data is understandable, but given the temporary driving factors, this reaction may be somewhat untimely.

Analyst Adam Crisafulli from Vital Knowledge stated that due to the recent shift in the FOMC's rhetoric towards employment, Powell and his colleagues may spend more time evaluating initial claims data rather than CPI. Additionally, the slowdown in housing inflation is a potential positive development.

Institutional analysis believes that although the September CPI in the USA slightly exceeded expectations, the annual inflation rate increase was the smallest in over three and a half years, which may still lead the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates next month.

Analyst Chris Anstey stated that the slightly higher-than-expected CPI report provided a reason to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next month instead of 50 basis points.

Analyst Michael Brown from Pepperstone also mentioned that despite the higher-than-expected US inflation data, the CPI figures for September are unlikely to substantially alter the policy outlook of the FOMC. He pointed out:

"Despite strong September employment report, and with the ongoing anti-inflation progress, it is expected that the remaining two FOMC meetings this year will see 25 basis points rate cuts each time. This rate-cut pace may continue until 2025, until the federal funds rate returns to a neutral level of around 3% in the summer of next year. Essentially, this is the 'Fed put option,' which continues to exist in a strong and flexible form, providing further confidence to participants to stay away from the risk curve, while also keeping stock market declines relatively shallow and seen as buying opportunities.

Analyst Joseph believes that the future focus will be on consumer spending data, so next week's retail sales report will be crucial for the treasury yield outlook for the remaining time of this month.

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